Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
49ers vs. Packers Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Packers +3.5 (to +3) |
| Under 50.5 (to 49.5) |
| Over 50 (to 50.5) |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 33.5 Rec Yards |
Packers +3.5
Chris Raybon: Missing left tackle Elgton Jenkins is not ideal for the Packers, but the 49ers having a backfield and cornerback corps in flux does not bode well against the Packers, whom you need to play ball-control against on offense and cover on defense.
At some point, the 49ers are going to need a big-time throw from Jimmy Garoppolo, and he literally hasn’t made one yet this season.
I’d also worry about a let-down spot for 2-0 49ers vs. a Packers team that doesn’t want to hear the critics if they drop to 1-2 with a primetime loss.
This is the 49ers’ first game back after a two-game road trip, a spot in which West Coast home teams have struggled, going just 57-85-5 (40%) against the spread (ATS) since 2003, according to our Action Labs data. Kyle Shanahan in particular has struggled getting his team up in this spot, going just 2-7 ATS. He has also struggled as a favorite in his career, going just 8-18-1 (31%) ATS.
And because we’re still at a point where the season is young, this can be a great spot to back small underdogs, as the market tends to overrate favorites based on two weeks of data. Case in point: Since 2003, Week 3 underdogs that opened under +7 are covering at a 59% clip. And Week 3 underdogs facing a favorite that covered in Week 2 are covering at a 60% rate.
You can read my full analysis of this matchup here, but I’m taking the Packers down to +3.
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Under 50.5
Sean Koerner: In Week 1, I attacked the Packers-Saints under (it won). In Week 2, I attacked the 49ers-Eagles under (it also won). Now for Week 3, I love the under between these two teams as I’m projecting it closer to 48.
Normally, this would be a game in which Shanahan would attack the Packers’ weakness on defense (24th in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA). However, the 49ers just lost Raheem Mostert (IR), Elijah Mitchell (doubtful) and JaMycal Hasty (out). Now they’ll be starting third-round rookie Trey Sermon, who just cleared the concussion protocol.
The 49ers have breezed to a 2-0 start against below-average teams, but they could struggle to put up points here against the Packers.
The Packers had a nice 35-17 bounce-back win against the Lions on Monday Night Football. However, the 49ers will be a tougher test, especially since they welcomed back Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw last week. I’m expecting Kinlaw to have a huge Year 2 breakout, so getting him back should be a huge help.
This could be a game in which being without LT David Bakhtiari comes back to bite the Packers.
The Packers play at the fourth-slowest pace while the 49ers play at the eighth-slowest, so I’m expecting a slower-paced, low-scoring environment than we would typically see in a game with a total of 50+ points.
League-wide, holding calls have gone up from 1.8 in 2020 to 2.5 this season. We need to keep an eye on a trend — it could give the under a bit of value before the market catches up.
I like this under down to 49.5 points.
Over 50
Raheem Palmer: These are two teams that will struggle to stop one another, so it’s no surprise that we’ve seen this line move from from 48 to 50.
The Packers’ defensive issues have been well documented this season. Given the absence of Za’Darius Smith — who’s on IR with a back injury — the team struggles to generate a consistent pass rush, ranking 21st in pressure rate (22.2%) and dead last in sacks with just one this season.
The Packers are also ninth in points allowed at 27.5 points per game, 22nd in defensive expected points added (EPA) per play and 21st in defensive rushing success rate. That means I’m expecting Garoppolo and this 49ers’ zone run scheme to have no problems moving the ball up and down the field, even despite their injuries at running back.
Unfortunately for the 49ers, their injuries extend to their defense, where they’re already missing Jason Verrett (torn ACL). Fellow cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley (knee) and Josh Norman (angle) have also been dealing with injuries while linebacker Dre Greenlaw (groin) is out for the next six-to-eight weeks. And that’s before we even get to DT Javon Kinlaw (knee), DL Arik Armstead (hip/adductor), DE Dee Ford (ankle) and LB Marcell Harris (oblique), who are all playing through injuries.
Nevertheless, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams should do a much better job than the Eagles did last week at capitalizing on chances to score against the 49ers.
I like the over up to 50.5 points.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 33.5 Rec Yards
Mike Randle: The boom-or-best nature of Marquez Valdes-Scantling causes bettors to often shy away from his props due to volatility. However, now is the the time to strike on an absurdly-low receiving yardage prop.
Valdes-Scantling has been targeted 12 times over two games but has produced only 17 receiving yards. He’s remained an integral part of the Green Bay offense, holding a 70% snap share through the first two contests.
The opening game was a blowout in which the Packers were dominated by the Saints in every phase of the game. Lead running back Aaron Jones tallied only 22 total yards against the Saints, but responded with the overall fantasy RB2 performance in Week 2.
Rodgers recorded his worst overall performance as a starter in Week 1, then produced and 81.6% completion rate and four touchdowns in Week 2.
That opening game against New Orleans has lingering effects on Green Bay’s prop totals, creating a betting opportunity for MVS. He’s ranked first among all wide receivers in unrealized air yards (241), which shows Rodgers’ intent to get MVS the ball. The duo just missed on a 47-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter against Detroit. Now in a game with a solid 50-point total and only a 3-point spread, I expect the historically-accurate Rodgers and MVS to finally hit on that connection at least once.
With this total just 33.5 yards, all MVS potentially needs is one catch. This is an 8-rated prop on my colleague Sean Koerner’s Player Prop Tool on FantasyLabs, with a projected receiving total of 43.2 yards.
I would bet this over up to 35.5 yards in a game that Green Bay will likely need to post a significant point total to win.
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