Getty Images. Pictured: Rory Sabbatini (left) and Joel Dahmen.
Just because some unusual names are atop the leaderboard this week at the Wyndham Championship doesn’t mean this field isn’t flush with betting value.
Webb Simpson and Hideki Matsuyama aren’t usually the top two on the oddsboards on the PGA TOUR, but that’s where we find ourselves this week. There are plenty of players looking to finish the 2020-21 season strong, though, and some of our golf writers’ longshots this week have already made their mark on the campaign.
Below, check out our staff’s best longshot picks to win the final event of the PGA TOUR regular season at Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina.
Chris Kirk (+14000)
Jason Sobel: Ever since a T-2 finish at the Sony Open in the first full-field event of the year, I’ve thought that Kirk was going to win before the calendar turned over – and, well, technically we’ve still got a few months, even if this is the last event of the current regular season.
This could be a good spot for him to do it, though. Even though Kirk has never finished in the top 10 at this event, topping out with a T-11 three years ago, his career scoring average of 68.50 suggests he could certainly put four solid rounds together to at least contend this week. I think there’s value at this number, as he owns greater potential win equity than a handful of players with shorter odds.
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Patton Kizzire (+8000)
Chris Murphy: I’ve gone to this well a few times this year, though those were typically at shorter numbers, and this +9000 on Kizzire on DraftKings is too good to pass up.
Sedgefield Country Club is really well suited for everything Kizzire does, as he should be able to dial it back a bit off the tee to find fairways. If he can avoid getting himself in trouble from that standpoint, his approach play and elite putting can have him scoring birdies in bunches.
The former Georgia Bulldog has gained 13.6 strokes putting at this course over the past two years, and 2.9 more with his approach. As mentioned above, we need him to play it well from the tee as he’s lost 7.3 in that category during that same stretch, but that seems to be baked into his numbers. He has gained 6.9 strokes off the tee in his last two TOUR events, which I am hoping will carry over into the Wyndham Championship and have his name in contention this weekend.
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Rory Sabbatini (+10000)
Matt Vincenzi: Rory Sabbatini has a few reasons to be extremely confident heading into the Wyndham Championship.
His most recent round of golf was one of the most impressive in recent memory and took place on the world stage. Sabbatini shot 61 in the final round of the Olympics to claim the silver medal and finish just one shot behind gold medalist Xander Schauffele.
A Sunday 61.
The lowest round of golf in Olympic history helped Rory Sabbatini earn the silver medal. pic.twitter.com/YQFirW403V
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 1, 2021
Another reason Sabbatini should enter the week with some confidence is his excellent course history. He has a top-six finish in three of his past five trips to Greensboro, with his most recent coming in 2019 (sixth). The 45-year-old has been a Donald Ross design specialist throughout his career and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Ross designs in his past 36 rounds.
Prior to the Olympics, there is no doubt that Sabbatini was struggling, but both his confidence and comfortability should be sky high this week and that can make all the difference in golf.
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Bo Hoag (+15000)
Josh Perry: I’ll stick with rehashing my Barracuda Championship plays and go back to Bo Hoag. It wasn’t a great week for Hoag at Lake Tahoe, but it was another made cut, which means he’s made five in a row.
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Doug Ghim (+8000)
Landon Sillinsky: Many will scoff over Doug Ghim this week because of his woes with the putter, a rather important club at Sedgefield as history has shown us in the past.
However, I believe that may be overblown, as Ghim sits 47th on TOUR in Birdie or Better percentage on the year, so clearly he makes enough putts when he has to. His ball striking is otherworldly, as pretty much any metric would illustrate. He ranks 12th in driving accuracy, third in greens in regulation and eighth in SG: Ball-Striking all over his past 36 rounds in this field.
Ghim has the ability to absolutely carve up this course, and lord watch out if he’s even average with the flatstick. He’s also seen the course a couple times and posted a T-20 in 2018.
I’ll take my chances here at 80/1.
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Joel Dahmen (+8000)
Bryan Berryman: As a leader in both driving accuracy and birdie or better percentage in this field, Dahmen fits what I’m looking for this week.
Unfortunately, as with most longshots, his putter can get shaky at times. No better example of this than his most recent performance at the 3M Open, where he gained 5.4 strokes tee to green but lost it all back, and then some, on the greens.
However, the premium on driving accuracy this week is real, and Dahmen is one of the most consistent and accurate drivers of the golf ball there is on TOUR. In every measured time frame, Dahmen ranks inside the top 25 in finding fairways off the tee.
Combine that with his fifth ranked birdie or better percentage over the last 12 rounds, and fourth ranked strokes gained approach numbers over the last 36 rounds, and I’m really liking the way this week is setting up for him. If we get a spiked week with the putter, Dahmen can definitely win this event.
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