Han Yan/Xinhua via Getty Images. Pictured: Roger Federer.
If you can believe it, we’re already to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, and we’ve got a wildly exciting arrange of players here. From the unlikely in Hubert Hurkacz to the expected in Roger Federer, Wednesday at the All England Club promises to be a special one.
With that, I’ve got two ways I’m getting into the action.
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Karen Khachanov vs. Denis Shapovalov
It’s true, Denis Shapovalov’s head can get the best of him in a spot like this one, a Grand Slam quarterfinal, but he’s not only seemingly over those issues (at least temporarily), the guy on the other side of the net is arguably an even-bigger headcase.
It doesn’t get shakier than being broken six times in the deciding set and failing to serve the match out twice, and that’s what happened to Khachanov in the Round of 16 against Sebastian Korda. The youngster was donating breaks of his own left and right, with fatigue and inexperience getting the best of him. Khachanov’s defense was on full display, but Korda’s ground-stroking is admittedly slightly above average, at best.
In fact, Khachanov has faced some pretty light competition from beyond the baseline. There was Mackenzie McDonald, who doesn’t offer much pace, Egor Gerasimov who’s easy to beat in rallies, and Frances Tiafoe who made error after error. No one has really challenged Khachanov the way Shapovalov will.
There’s no question Shapovalov has one of the biggest games on tour; his confidence has always been what’s held him back. With a clear mind and eyes on the semifinals, I expect his game to be bigger than ever. He’s been exceptional all tournament long, and now with the grass drying up and playing quicker, he could reach a new level.
Pick: Shapovalov -4.5 Games (-125)
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Roger Federer vs. Hubert Hurkacz
It’s no secret that “The Great Man,” as he’s known around the Wimbledon grounds, is an old man. There’s no one more accomplished in this game than Roger Federer, but he’s also not quite the player he was even just a couple of years ago. He’s had a great tournament to this point, and looks fantastic for his lack of matches, but I’m not so certain his body is going to be able to hold up much longer.
Enter Hubert Hurkacz, a player with tremendous talent and power coming in at 6’5″. He won his first Masters 1000 this spring, and despite an awful season after that and a long losing streak entering the Championships, he’s found his game once again on the grass, and at a tournament where he took a set off of Novak Djokovic a few years back.
The ground game is crisp and strong from Hurkacz, who can be lethal on the quick grass with a flat, swinging backhand from a high angle. He broke down Daniil Medvedev’s forehand and backhand wings, and I think he can win plenty of the rallies against Federer, who hasn’t moved incredibly.
Though Federer will probably be better at returning the Hurkacz serve than Medvedev was, I’m still very bullish on the young Pole’s ability to push Federer. Entering Wimbledon, and even at the tournament, Federer left a lot to be desired in his return games and has played a lot of tiebreaks.
I see this match very close, giving Hurkacz an edge on the game spread. This may go five sets.
Pick: Hurkacz +4.5 Games (-125), Hurkacz +205 (0.5u)
