Credit: Al Gallo, Getty. Felix Aliassime eyes a volley at the 2020 U.S. Open.
The U.S. Open is finally upon us, and it is a glorious sight. Undoubtedly the most bettable tennis event for Americans, with matches going all day every day for two weeks, the tournament is pure electricity for gamblers.
We’ll have day session and afternoon/evening session picks for every day of the tournament, so let’s get into the first day of action.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Evgeny Donskoy
11:00 a.m. ET
Avery Zimmerman: The way that Auger-Aliassime plays, you would think that he would be able to take advantage of the conditions in Queens on a consistent basis, but that hasn’t been the case.
Auger-Aliassime has only been able to make it past the first round once in four tries, though his best result came last year with a fourth-round loss. Additionally, Auger-Aliassime is an uninspiring 14-9 on hard courts this year, a number that makes little sense when putting his power game into context.
Donskoy, on the other hand, absolutely loves this tournament. He’s made eight consecutive main draws in the tournament, grinding from the baseline year in, year out. The Russian is the type of player that could trouble Felix if he’s off his game and donating lots of points on unforced errors.
It’s unlikely that Donskoy can go and outperform Auger-Aliassime over five sets, but if the Canadian’s level drops at occasional times in the match, Donskoy could pounce in key moments as an experienced player. The Canadian is a front-runner, and the key for him will to be to get out ahead of this match early.
If he isn’t able to take the first, Donskoy has a real chance to pull off something special. But that itself is more of a live-betting opportunity.
Pick: Evgeny Donskoy +7.5 -123 (FanDuel)
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Thiago Monteiro vs. Dan Evans
11:00 a.m. ET
Avery Zimmerman: This is another early matchup that offers plenty of promise in the underdog. Evans comes into the match as a solid favorite, but the number is far more reflective of his history than his current form.
Evans is 1-4 since returning to America from Wimbledon, and his results suggest that a bout with COVID prior to the American swing has something to do with it. He’s looked tired and drained in a number of the matches, laboring through points and failing to play his patented slice with the same conviction.
Monteiro, on the other hand, is one of the fittest guys on tour, and will have the gas in the tank to grind through the match. He’s by no means a world-beater on hard courts, but Monteiro’s 8-5 record on the surface this year gives me the confidence that he will thrive on Monday.
Expect a match that consists of long rallies and consistent but not overpowered serving that is highly contested with a lot of emotion – always the case when Evans plays – and intensity.
Pick: Thiago Monteiro +1.5 sets +140 (BetMGM)
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Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Casper Ruud
2:15 p.m. ET
Kenny Ducey: Repeat after me: Casper Ruud is not a good hardcourt player.
The new World No. 11 is one of the fastest risers over the last couple of years, but his run to the brink of the top 10 is all thanks to his play on clay courts, namely the smaller ones. He’s a combined 21-19 on hardcourts since the beginning of 2019, and while he has grown since then, he’s still just 9-4 this year with some wins over out-of-form or fatigued players.
I’m simply not sold quite yet, and should point out that his biggest weapon — the topspin forehand — isn’t a shot that has quite the same effect on a hardcourt. It will kick up off the clay and create a brutal bounce to deal with, but it kind of hangs up on a smooth hardcourt, available for the opponent to crush. His looping forehands and moonballs can be a bit too inviting for younger players, who crush them into the net, but an experienced player like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should be up to the task.
Now, we don’t really know what we’re going to get here for the former World No. 5. He’s 36 and has lost seven straight matches. There’s a reason he’s priced like this, but there’s so much potential here coming to Queens, where he’s played some fantastic tennis in years past.
Tsonga has been very competitive in his losses, including at the Grand Slams, and I expect him to come out strong here before eventually fading away. By potentially taking a set, or sending the first to a tiebreak, he should cover this.
Pick: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +7.5 -115 (BetMGM)
James Duckworth vs. Pedro Martinez
1:00 p.m. ET
Kenny Ducey: Everyone seems to be going crazy over James Duckworth, who backed up a strong grass-court season with a run to the Round of 16 in Toronto, but I’m not quite sure he deserves to be a -235 favorite against a very underrated hardcourt player.
Hailing from Spain, Martinez is pegged as a clay-court specialist. It makes sense, considering he grew up on the surface and has played the vast majority of his matches on that surface. With that being said, he’s still got a winning record on hardcourts at 46-31 and has the relentless power and aggression to earn wins here.
Martinez has never won a match at the U.S. Open, but he had two impressive qualifying runs before losing in heartbreaking fashion to supreme talents. He’s also picked up plenty of wins at the Australian Open, the other hardcourt slam we have on the calendar, and he ran to the third round there this year.
Duckworth is nothing more than an average player, picking up wins in Toronto over an injured Taylor Fritz and a gassed Jannik Sinner, coming off a long title run in Cincinnati. He’s racked up some “fake wins” as I’d say, inflating his price here. The value is surely on Martinez.
Pick: Pedro Martinez +190 (DraftKings)
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