AYAKA NAITO/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: USWNT
The eight-team knockout draw in women’s soccer at the 2021 Olympics will be set on Tuesday morning Eastern Time when the final slate of group matches concludes.
The United States still has a great chance to advance, needing just a draw or better against Australia to all but guarantee itself a spot. There is still a scenario in which the U.S. loses to Australia and advances out of the third-place spot in Group G.
The U.S. is still the gold medal favorite, around +125 at most books, with Great Britain, the Netherlands and Sweden behind.
Below, we broke down group standings and scenarios for the knockout round.
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Group Standings
The 12 teams in the Olympic women’s soccer tournament are broken into three four-team groups. The top two teams will automatically advance, and two third-place teams with the most points will also reach the quarterfinals, with goal differential and goals scored as the next tiebreakers.
Group E
| Team | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Great Britain | 6 | 3 |
| Canada | 4 | 1 |
| Japan | 1 | -1 |
| Chile | 0 | -3 |
Great Britain needs a win or draw over Canada on Tuesday to win the group. Canada is in good shape to advance, even with a loss. Four points should be enough to lock in one of the third-place spots.
Japan needs a win over Chile, and should advance no matter what happens in the United States’ group. Even if the U.S. and Australia draw and have four points each, there would need to be massive upsets in Group F to eliminate a victorious Japan and the United States or Australia.
Group F
| Team | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 4 | 7 |
| Brazil | 4 | 5 |
| China | 1 | -5 |
| Zambia | 1 | -7 |
The Netherlands is a massive -900 favorite over China; Brazil is an even bigger favorite over Zambia at -6600. If both favorites win, neither China nor Zambia will advance to the knockout round.
But if one or both of China and Zambia pull off upsets, we could have a four-way tie with four points each, or two teams with four points jockeying to advance from the third spot in this group.
Group G
| Team | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 6 | 5 |
| USA | 3 | 2 |
| Australia | 3 | -1 |
| New Zealand | 0 | -6 |
The United States most likely needs a win or draw over Australia to advance. They’re a -350 favorite to win. Thanks to its goal differential from a 6-1 win over New Zealand, four points should be enough to advance.
The U.S. can advance with a loss assuming the favorites win in Group F, and Sweden beats or draws New Zealand. If New Zealand does win, it will need to make up a massive goal differential to get the third-place spot.
2021 Olympic Women’s Soccer Schedule & Results
Women’s soccer at the Olympics features three matchdays, with all 12 teams in action, unlike the World Cup or Euro 2020. The second of those matchdays happens Saturday in the early morning hours of the Eastern Time Zone.
The USWNT is in action at 4 a.m. ET on Tuesday against Australia for its final match of group play.
All four quarterfinal matches will be played on Friday, July 30, with the semifinals and medal-round games the following Monday and Thursday. The gold-medal match will be at 10 a.m. ET and more viewable for the American audience.
Wednesday
| Match | Time (ET) | TV Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Great Britain 2, Chile 0 | 3:30 a.m. | Olympic |
| Brazil 5, China 0 | 4 a.m. | NBCSN |
| Sweden 3, USA 0 | 4:30 a.m. | USA |
| Japan 1, Canada 1 | 6:30 a.m. | NBCSN |
| Netherlands 10, Zambia 3 | 7 a.m. | Olympic |
| Australia 2, New Zealand 1 | 7:30 a.m. | USA |
Saturday
| Match | Time (ET) | TV Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Canada 2, Chile 1 | 3:30 a.m. | Telemundo |
| China 4, Zambia 4 | 4 a.m. | None |
| Sweden 4, Australia 2 | 4:30 a.m. | NBCSN |
| Great Britain 2, Japan 1 | 6:30 a.m. | None |
| Netherlands 3, Brazil 3 | 7 a.m. | Universo |
| USA 6, New Zealand 1 | 7:30 a.m. | NBCSN |
Tuesday, July 27
| Match | Time (ET) | TV Channel |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand vs. Sweden | 4 a.m. | N/A |
| USA vs. Australia | 4 a.m. | USA |
| Chile vs. Japan | 7 a.m. | Universo |
| Canada vs. Great Britain | 7 a.m. | N/A |
| Netherlands vs. China | 7:30 a.m. | N/A |
| Brazil vs. Zambia | 7:30 a.m. | Telemundo |
Projected Bracket
Friday, July 30
Quarterfinal Matchups
Game 1: 2E vs. 2F — 4 a.m. ET
Game 2: 1E vs. 3F or 3G — 5 a.m. ET
Game 3: 1G vs. 3E or 3F — 6 a.m. ET
Game 4: 1F vs. 2G — 7 a.m. ET
Our Projected Quarterfinals
Game 1: Canada vs. Netherlands
Game 2: Great Britain vs. Australia
Game 3: Sweden vs. Japan
Game 4: Brazil vs. USA
Semifinals
Monday, Aug. 2
Game 5: Game 1 vs. Game 4 winners — 4 a.m. ET
Game 6: Game 2 vs. Game 3 winners — 7 a.m. ET
Medal matches
Thursday, Aug. 5
Game 7: Bronze medal match — 4 a.m. ET
Game 8: Gold medal match — 10 am. ET
Odds to Win Gold Medal
Odds via Bet365 after the first two matches of the tournament, with the juice removed from probabilities.
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| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| USA | +125 | 37.1% |
| Great Britain | +350 | 18.5% |
| Netherlands | +550 | 12.8% |
| Sweden | +550 | 12.8% |
| Brazil | +1100 | 6.9% |
| Canada | +1600 | 4.9% |
| Australia | +2500 | 3.2% |
| Japan | +2500 | 3.2% |
| China | +100000 | .08% |
| Chile | +200000 | .04% |
| New Zealand | +300000 | .02% |
| Zambia | +300000 | .02% |
U.S. Women’s Roster
Goalkeeper (2): Adrianna Franch (Portland Thorns FC), Alyssa Naeher (Chicago Red Stars)
Defense (6): Abby Dahlkemper (Manchester City), Tierna Davidson (Chicago Red Stars), Crystal Dunn (Portland Thorns FC), Kelley O’Hara (Washington Spirit), Becky Sauerbrunn (Portland Thorns FC), Emily Sonnett (Washington Spirit)
Midfielders (5): Julie Ertz (Chicago Red Stars), Lindsey Horan (Portland Thorns FC), Rose Lavelle (OL Reign), Kristie Mewis (Houston Dash), Samantha Mewis (NC Courage)
Forwards (5): Tobin Heath, Carli Lloyd (NJ/NY Gotham FC), Alex Morgan (Orlando Pride), Christen Press, Megan Rapinoe (OL Reign)