2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Picks, Exact Dog Predictions: Will Joey Chestnut Smash Record Again?

Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Chestnut

2021 Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

Eater	Odds	Probability
Joey Chestnut	-3335	90.66%
Anyone Else	+900	9.34%

Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday night, and with the juice removed.

You can’t bet on everything in the new United States sports betting market. State regulations prohibit wagering on many novel events, unlike many offshore websites that aren’t regulated and can offer just about anything.

But the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is an exception to that rule, in a few states at least.

DraftKings, BetMGM and PointsBet have posted odds on Chestnut vs. the field, total hot dogs eaten, matchups between other competitors and more. Not every book is offering the contest in every state — DraftKings has it in New Jersey, for example, but PointsBet does not. Limits are $100 at DraftKings and the bets are listed under “novelty” instead of a specific sport.

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The New Jersey Department of Gaming Enforcement originally did not allow operators to post odds in 2019, even after Major League Eating lobbied for it.

In 2020, those three states approved it for DK. And DraftKings, thanks to its partnership with Major League Eating, became the “market leader” in competitive eating betting.

2021 Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks

Well, you know now you can bet on the Hot Dog Eating Contest in some states. So what should you bet?

Chestnut is such a big favorite that it’s not going to be worth laying $335 to win $10 on him.

So our Matt Mitchell and Darren Rovell broke down several different bet types, and arrived at their favorite — under 73.5 hot dogs at plus money at DraftKings.

That under has actually dropped from +165 to +125 over the last few days, with the over at -165. PointsBet is offering under 74.5 at -105, as well, if you want the extra dog.

Mitchell expects Chestnut to take a slight step back this year after setting another record last year with 75 hot dogs. Rovell argues that Chestnut doesn’t need to smash records in the same way because he’s so far ahead of the field, even at 37-years-old.

Mitchell also likes the “exact hot dogs eaten” props of 70-72 or 73-74 at plus-money, if you can find them.

Hot Dog Eating Contest Props

DraftKings has a few props, including total number of hot dogs eaten, and two matchup bets for other competitors.

Joey Chestnut Hot Dogs Eaten

Total	Odds	Probability
Over 73.5	-200	62.5%
Under 73.5	+165	37.5%

Hot Dog Eating Contest Past Winners & Total Dogs Eaten

Chestnut has won every year but one since 2007, and he has increased his output along the way. He’s topped 70 dogs in 10 minutes in each of the last five contests, including a record 75 in 2020.

But last year, he closed extremely strong, adding four hot dogs after the buzzer because any hot dogs that a contestant starts eating before the buzzer are counted as long as they stay down.