Getty Images. Pictured: DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs
Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker of 2019 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2021. This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these Tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2021 Fantasy Draft Kit.
Running back is the most critical position in fantasy football, but wide receiver is a close second.
With the depth at WR, it’s easy to become complacent while drafting — if you miss out on a specific tier of WRs, you think there will be more talent to choose from later. But you have to be careful not to neglect the position so much over the first six rounds that you end up with Deebo Samuel as your WR2.
If WR has ever been the weakest position for one of your teams, you know it can feel like an uphill battle. One reason is the position is more volatile week-to-week, and there aren’t the same short-term buy opportunities when a starter misses time.
We all know that when a starting RB is injured, the door opens for a backup to see instant fantasy value. Unfortunately, WR doesn’t offer the same upside. For example, if Adam Thielen were to miss time for the Vikings, Dede Westbrook could get the nod to start in 2-WR sets, but it’s unlikely he would be playable in most leagues.
The takeaway here is that it’s important to spend significant draft capital to lock in your WRs. For example, if you’re in a three wide receiver league, it’s essential to have at least two before your draft reaches Tier 8 and three before Tier 9 is off the board.
Remember, our entire goal is to take players before the steep drop-offs at the end of a tier.
It’s easier to visualize this when looking at the projected points per game for the top 65 WRs:
That said, let’s dive into my WR tiers for 2021!
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | Davante Adams (GB) Tyreek Hill (KC) |
| 2 | Stefon Diggs (BUF) Calvin Ridley (ATL) DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) |
| 3 | D.K. Metcalf (SEA) Justin Jefferson (MIN) |
| 4 | A.J. Brown (TEN) |
| 5 | Keenan Allen (LAC) CeeDee Lamb (DAL) Terry McLaurin (WAS) Allen Robinson (CHI) Robert Woods (LAR) |
| 6 | Amari Cooper (DAL) Mike Evans (TB) Cooper Kupp (LAR) Tyler Lockett (SEA) Chris Godwin (TB) Julio Jones (TEN) D.J. Moore (CAR) Adam Thielen (MIN) |
| 7 | Diontae Johnson (PIT) Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) Tee Higgins (CIN) |
| 8 | Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) Brandon Aiyuk (SF) Chase Claypool (PIT) Robby Anderson (CAR) Michael Thomas (NO) Kenny Golladay (NYG) Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT) D.J. Chark (JAX) Jerry Jeudy (DEN) Brandin Cooks (HOU) Tyler Boyd (CIN) |
| 9 | Deebo Samuel (SF) Mike Williams (LAC) Courtland Sutton (DEN) Laviska Shenault (JAX) Jarvis Landry (CLE) Marquise Brown (BAL) Michael Gallup (DAL) Will Fuller (MIA) Devonta Smith (PHI) |
| 10 | Antonio Brown (TB) Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) Curtis Samuel (WAS) Marvin Jones (JAX) Darnell Mooney (CHI) DeVante Parker (MIA) Mecole Hardman (KC) Corey Davis (NYJ) Cole Beasley (BUF) Elijah Moore (NYJ) |
| 11 | Tre’Quan Smith (NO) Henry Ruggs (LV) Gabriel Davis (BUF) T.Y. Hilton (IND) Jalen Reagor (PHI) Russell Gage (ATL) Rondale Moore (ARI) Nelson Agholor (NE) Rashod Bateman (BAL) Christian Kirk (ARI) Breshad Perriman (DET) Bryan Edwards (LV) Terrace Marshall (CAR) Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) Sterling Shepard (NYG) John Brown (LV) Jakobi Meyers (NE) |
| 12 | Tyrell Williams (DET) Parris Campbell (IND) Jamison Crowder (NYJ) Randall Cobb (GB) Byron Pringle (KC) Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Allen Lazard (GB) A.J. Green (ARI) Sammy Watkins (BAL) K.J. Hamler (DEN) Denzel Mims (NYJ) Van Jefferson (LAR) Darius Slayton (NYG) |
Tier 1
Davante Adams (GB)
Tyreek Hill (KC)
You can’t go wrong with either Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill as the first WR off the board.
In what is likely to be their final season together, Aaron Rodgers could make it a point to target Adams even more, if that’s even possible.
Tier 2
Stefon Diggs (BUF)
Calvin Ridley (ATL)
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)
These WRs are great targets at the Round 1/2 turn, because you can pair them with a high-tier RB or Travis Kelce.
Calvin Ridley was a no-brainer target as a mid-range WR2 last season. Now with Julio Jones off to Tennessee, Ridley is worth his capital as a top-five WR in Average Draft Position (ADP).
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Calvin RidleyTier 3
D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
Justin Jefferson (MIN)
This is Year 3 for D.K. Metcalf, which means he is just now entering his prime. He was the WR2 overall between Weeks 1-8 last season while Seattle “let Russ cook” before the offense fell flat over the second half of the schedule. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s up-tempo style should allow this offense to hit its ceiling this season.
Justin Jefferson suffered a potentially scary shoulder injury in an early-August practice. Thankfully, it didn’t end up being that serious and he should be 100% by Week 1, when he can start building on his historic rookie season.
Tiers 3 and 4 are part of what I consider the optimal draft strategy in 2021 if you have a top-four pick. Metcalf or Jefferson will typically fall toward the end of Round 2, allowing you to secure an elite WR1 before the position starts to level off.
I would consider the “optimal” start when drafting from one of the first four slots to be:
- Round 1: Top 4 RB
- Round 2: Tier3/4 WR
- Round 3: TE Darren Waller
Tier 4
A.J. Brown (TEN)
Brown represents where the position transitions from WR1s to WR2s.
Julio Jones will eat into Brown’s target share, but Brown has never needed a ton of volume to produce WR1 numbers. In fact, Jones’ presence will allow Brown to maintain his elite efficiency.
Tier 5
Keenan Allen (LAC)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
Allen Robinson (CHI)
Robert Woods (LAR)
I was targeting CeeDee Lamb heavily when his ADP was around WR15-17 earlier this summer. However, the market is wising up to his incoming Year 2 breakout, and his ADP is up to WR12. He’s still worth taking at that ADP.
Robert Woods’ ADP has him going toward the end of Tier 6, making him a player to target heavily. Upgrading from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford at quarterback means Woods should see more high-value targets of 20+ air yards and in the end zone.
Tier 6
Amari Cooper (DAL)
Mike Evans (TB)
Cooper Kupp (LAR)
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Chris Godwin (TB)
Julio Jones (TEN)
D.J. Moore (CAR)
Adam Thielen (MIN)
Tiers 6 and 7 are also critical to my draft strategy as the position sees another sharp drop-off after this before leveling off, which is why I aim to draft at least two WRs before these tiers are off the board.
Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett and D.J. Moore are typically the last WRs drafted from this tier, making them the best ones to target at their ADPs.
Amari Cooper’s ankle injury could send his ADP even lower over the next couple weeks, but unless his Week 1 status comes into question, I won’t hesitate to take him if he falls outside the top 15 WRs.
Tier 7
Diontae Johnson (PIT)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
Tee Higgins (CIN)
Tier 7 offers us one last chance to snag a WR2, or if you already have two WRs, then it offers us high-end WR3 options.
Don’t let Diontae Johnson’s league-high 15 drops prevent you from targeting him at ADP — drops are a fickle stat that does not carry over year-to-year. If anything, it means that Johnson will convert a few more drops into receptions (i.e. fantasy points) in 2021.
Take your pick of either Bengals WR here.
Ja’Marr Chase is one of the more talented WRs to enter the league in recent memory, plus he already has chemistry with Joe Burrow from their LSU days. On the other hand, Tee Higgins at least has a year of NFL experience under his belt — his only edge over Chase — and the two should form a solid one-two punch for years to come.
Tier 8
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
Chase Claypool (PIT)
Robby Anderson (CAR)
Michael Thomas (NO)
Kenny Golladay (NYG)
Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT)
D.J. Chark (JAX)
Jerry Jeudy (DEN)
Brandin Cooks (HOU)
Tyler Boyd (CIN)
Let this be your annual reminder (by yours truly) not to underestimate Robby Anderson.
Last season, Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady used Anderson as the X receiver — the Michael Thomas role in this Sean Payton-inspired offense. It allowed Anderson to set career highs in receptions (95) and yards (1097). Unfortunately, he scored only three touchdowns. But considering he went 0-for-7 on his end-zone targets, positive TD regression is coming in 2021.
Brandon Aiyuk had a sneaky good rookie season despite playing only 12 games. He posted a top-12 WR score in five of those 12 games — only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Brown had a higher top-12 finish rate than Aiyuk (42%).
Jerry Jeudy had a disappointing rookie season, but a closer look at his underlying stats give me confidence he will crush his ADP this year:
- He had 13 drops: They were his fault, of course, but drops are not a predictive stat year-to-year. We should expect his drop rate to improve in 2021.
- Dealt with poor QB play: His 65.5% catchable ball rate ranked 37th out of the 38 WRs who saw 100+ targets last season. Improved QB play by either Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater will help a ton.
- Lousy TD luck: He went 0-for-7 on end zone targets. Positive TD regression is incoming.
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Broncos WR Jerry JeudyJeudy also ranked seventh in Air Yards as a rookie. He’s a skilled route runner who should see a massive Year 2 leap.
I’m targeting Michael Thomas if he falls to me in the WR25-30 range. He’s going late enough to be your first WR bench stash anyway. The first 4-6 weeks of the season are the easiest to survive an injury to one of your starters. Then if you make it to your fantasy playoffs, you will be rewarded with a WR1/2 in Thomas at a fraction of the price.
Targets: Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, Robby Anderson, Jerry Jeudy, Brandin Cooks
Tier 9
Deebo Samuel (SF)
Mike Williams (LAC)
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Laviska Shenault (JAX)
Jarvis Landry (CLE)
Marquise Brown (BAL)
Michael Gallup (DAL)
Will Fuller (MIA)
Devonta Smith (PHI)
Mike Williams is a steal at his current ADP. Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has said he intends to use Williams as their X receiver, which again, is the Michael Thomas role in this Sean Payton-inspired offense. The former seventh overall pick is poised to have a career year, and I am targeting him heavily as a high-upside bench stash.
Michael Gallup is the other WR to target in this tier. He was the WR30 in Weeks 1-4 before Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury. Gallup was the odd-man-out last season as he mainly ran low-percentage routes, making him very inconsistent. However, the Cowboys have been lining him up all over the field — including the slot — in camp.
Gallup should have a much more significant role this season, and he’s a cheap way to invest in the Cowboys’ potent passing attack.
Targets: Mike Williams, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller
Tier 10
Antonio Brown (TB)
Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)
Curtis Samuel (WAS)
Marvin Jones (JAX)
Darnell Mooney (CHI)
DeVante Parker (MIA)
Mecole Hardman (KC)
Corey Davis (NYJ)
Cole Beasley (BUF)
Elijah Moore (NYJ)
I was very bullish on Curtis Samuel when he signed with the Football Team this offseason. He finished as the WR25 last season as the Panthers’ No. 3 WR and will be the No. 2 WR in a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense. However, a groin injury has held Samuel out of camp, so he’s missing precious practice time with his new team.
In addition, Adam Humphries and rookie Dyami Brown have been lining up in the slot, which means Samuel will likely play outside. As a result, I’m passing on Samuel at his current ADP.
Darnell Mooney, Mecole Hardman and Elijah Moore are all excellent players to target in this tier. They offer the kind of upside I like to have on my bench to begin the season.
Target: Darnell Mooney, Mecole Hardman, Elijah Moore
Tier 11
Tre’Quan Smith (NO)
Henry Ruggs (LV)
Gabriel Davis (BUF)
T.Y. Hilton (IND)
Jalen Reagor (PHI)
Russell Gage (ATL)
Rondale Moore (ARI)
Nelson Agholor (NE)
Rashod Bateman (BAL)
Christian Kirk (ARI)
Breshad Perriman (DET)
Bryan Edwards (LV)
Terrace Marshall (CAR)
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF)
Sterling Shepard (NYG)
John Brown (LV)
Jakobi Meyers (NE)
Gabriel Davis is likely going to be in a timeshare with Emmanuel Sanders to start the season. However, Davis is worth a bench flier because if any of the Bills’ three WRs were to miss time, he would provide instant fantasy value.
Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor and Bryan Edwards had disappointing seasons in 2020, meaning you can draft one of them for practically free this season.
I’m alright with taking a flier on any one of these second-year players.
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Henry Ruggs.Rondale Moore will be an exciting rookie to watch. He’s the perfect fit for the Cardinals because they like to use their WRs horizontally via-screen passes. I can see head coach Kliff Kingsbury forcing the ball to Moore, who should be a yards-after-catch specialist with his “make you miss” ability. Unfortunately, that’s a skill set that’s more valuable for his team than it is for your fantasy team.
Terrace Marshall is the sneakiest rookie to draft this season. We are unsure if Marshall or David Moore will open up as the Panthers’ No. 3 WR.
Like former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson last season, Marshall could get off to a slow start as a role player before becoming a full-time starter (I’m guessing that happens by Week 4-5). Samuel is leaving behind 97 targets as the Panthers’ No. 3 WR, which means there’s plenty of upside for Marshall this season. His massive 6-foot-3, 205-point frame could make him Sam Darnold’s preferred red-zone target as well.
His name isn’t Sarah, but still don’t forget about Terrance Marshall at the end of your drafts.
Note that Rashod Bateman will undergo surgery to address his groin injury and is expected to return before the end of September, but remember that you’re drafting him to have upside on your bench anyway.
Target: Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Gabriel Davis, Terrace Marshall
Tier 12
Tyrell Williams (DET)
Parris Campbell (IND)
Jamison Crowder (NYJ)
Randall Cobb (GB)
Byron Pringle (KC)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
Allen Lazard (GB)
A.J. Green (ARI)
Sammy Watkins (BAL)
K.J. Hamler (DEN)
Denzel Mims (NYJ)
Van Jefferson (LAR)
Darius Slayton (NYG)
I’m okay taking a flier on any of the Lions’ WRs at this point in the draft. My preferred target would be fourth-round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, though — he’s expected to be the starting slot receiver and is more in line with who Goff prefers to target (a la Cooper Kupp).
Aaron Rodgers personally requested the Packers go after Randall Cobb. Now that the two have been reunited in Green Bay, it makes Cobb a sneaky late-round flier.
Byron Pringle is a cheap way to buy into the Chiefs’ passing attack. He’s worth a flier to see how the Mecole Hardman vs. Byron Pringle vs. Demarcus Robinson battle turns out.
When it’s running on all cylinders, Sean McVay’s offense can supply three useful WRs, meaning we can take a flier on either DeSean Jackson or Van Jefferson. The Rams offense should be much better with Matthew Stafford under center this season.
Targets: Randall Cobb, Byron Pringle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Van Jefferson