Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller
Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker of 2019 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2021. This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these Tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2021 Fantasy Draft Kit.
The tight end position perfectly illustrates why it’s crucial to view fantasy football rankings in tiers that you can build your draft strategy around.
First, take a look at my projected points per game for the top 25 TEs:
When drafting based on my positional rankings, it’s essential to realize that not all rankings should be treated equally — the key is to identify how much the position drops off after a player or tier is off the board.
It’s easier to visualize this phenomenon by looking at the chart above. You can see the steep drop-off from the top three TEs to the three-player cluster around TE5 (Tier 4), then the position levels off quite a bit.
My draft strategy revolves around targeting players who represent a steep drop-off within their position, typically taking a player at the end of a tier rather than at the beginning.
I break it all down in my tiers below. Here are the key areas I highlight:
- Why Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are worth their Average Draft Position (ADP)
- Why Tier 4 is the most critical one of all (and how that makes T.J. Hockenson the most important TE in my draft strategy)
- Why we should avoid Tier 5 altogether
Fantasy TE Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce (KC) |
| 2 | Darren Waller (LV) |
| 3 | George Kittle (SF) |
| 4 | Mark Andrews (BAL) T.J. Hockenson (DET) Kyle Pitts (ATL) |
| 5 | Noah Fant (DEN) Logan Thomas (WAS) Dallas Goedert (PHI) Tyler Higbee (LAR) |
| 6 | Mike Gesicki (MIA) Robert Tonyan Jr. (GB) Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) Adam Trautman (NO) Evan Engram (NYG) Hunter Henry (NE) Jonnu Smith (NE) |
| 7 | Rob Gronkowski (TB) Anthony Firkser (TEN) Jared Cook (LAC) Gerald Everett (SEA) Cole Kmet (CHI) Austin Hooper (CLE) Blake Jarwin (DAL) Eric Ebron (PIT) |
| 8 | Zach Ertz (PHI) Hayden Hurst (ATL) O.J. Howard (TB) Dawson Knox (BUF) Mo Alie-Cox (IND) C.J. Uzomah (CIN) Chris Herndon (NYJ) Dan Arnold (CAR) Jordan Akins (HOU) |
Tier 1
Credit: David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.Travis Kelce (KC)
Kelce has been arguably the most dominant fantasy asset of late, finishing as the TE1, TE2, TE1, TE1 and TE1 in half PPR scoring in the last five seasons. He is showing no signs of slowing down at 32. But even if he starts to decline a bit, it will be offset by Patrick Mahomes entering the prime of his career at 26.
The edge Kelce provides at such a thin position easily makes him worth a first-round pick. I would take Kelce as early as 1.05 or 1.06, but the sharp play would be to wait for Darren Waller to make it back to you in Round 2 or 3. Having a draft slot in the 7-12 range is the sweet spot to target Kelce in Round 1 because Waller’s chances are slim to make it back to you in Round 3.
Takeaways:
- If your draft slot is between 1-6, you can pass on Travis Kelce and target Darren Waller in Round 2 or 3.
- If your draft slot is between 7-12, you can target Kelce.
Tier 2
Darren Waller (LV)
Waller (6-foot-6, 255 pounds) is an athletic freak who didn’t break out until his fourth season when he hauled in 90 catches for 1,146 yards and three touchdowns. He followed that up with an even better performance in 2020, going for 107/1195/nine. Waller has quickly become one of the safest bets at TE and should be drafted ahead of Kittle.
Nelson Agholor’s departure from Las Vegas leaves 82 targets and a team-high 13 end-zone targets up for grabs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Waller’s target share (27% on routes run) go up this season, especially in the red zone. It makes Waller a precious asset at fantasy football’s thinnest position.
Takeaway: No-brainer at ADP.
Tier 3
George Kittle (SF)
Kittle is arguably the best TE in the league, but Waller offers a much better floor/ceiling combo at the same price. One area where Kittle has been highly frustrating for fantasy owners is TD production. He has yet to top five touchdowns through his first four seasons. While he is due for some positive TD regression (I’m projecting him for 5.7 receiving TDs), a 10+ TD season doesn’t seem feasible. The 49ers will likely be run-heavy once Trey Lance takes over, lowering Kittle’s production across the board.
Takeaway: Once Darren Waller is off the board, George Kittle represents another steep drop-off at the position. He’s worth his ADP, but I prefer targeting Waller, who goes in the same range.
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Tier 4
Mark Andrews (BAL)
T.J. Hockenson (DET)
Kyle Pitts (ATL)
I consider this to be the most critical tier for the position. I say that because once these players are off the board, you can probably wait until the later rounds to draft your TE (not recommended).
It’s also at a point in the draft where the quarterback and running back positions see a steep drop-off as well. Going into Round 5 without a TE typically means you have been able to address QB/RB/WR with your first four picks and can now make your move at TE.
Andrews is entering his prime as he embarks on his fourth NFL season at 25 years old. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a contract year for Andrews. He managed to finish as the TE5 last season, despite Lamar Jackson taking a step back as a passer in 2020. I expect Jackson to bounce back in 2021, which should only help Andrews’ fantasy outlook.
To pay off at his current ADP, Pitts will need to have the best fantasy season for a rookie TE since Keith Jackson in 1988. Historically, players usually take two to four seasons to truly reach their potential at TE. However, Pitts is a generational talent who will be the No. 2 target in a very pass-heavy offense. Pitts seems worth the gamble if he falls to you as the TE6, but I probably won’t target him at TE4.
Hockenson will typically be the last TE taken from this tier, making him arguably the most valuable TE of the draft. Once he is off the board, we would need to consider punting the position altogether. However, drafting Hockenson allows you to load up at other positions in Round 5 and 6 and still land an elite TE1. He is an elite talent at his prime entering Year 3 at 24 years old. Jared Goff will lean heavily on his TE this season, especially considering the Lions have arguably the worst WR depth chart in the league.
Takeaway: Targeting T.J. Hockenson at ADP is the optimal draft strategy. However, it’s a high-risk one considering once he’s off the board, the TE position becomes a crapshoot.
Tier 5
Credit: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Broncos TE Noah Fant.Noah Fant (DEN)
Logan Thomas (WAS)
Dallas Goedert (PHI)
Tyler Higbee (LAR)
Once Tier 4 is off the board, the TE position levels off significantly. Therefore, it can be dangerous to use seventh- to ninth-round draft capital to target TEs in this range because it can negatively impact your in-season decision making. Let’s take a look at last season to illustrate my point.
Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbe and Hunter Henry were ADP TE7-TE10 last year. Unfortunately, the first three became “droppable” during the season, but you likely held onto them for too long considering you had to spend Round 7 or 8 draft capital on them. To make matters worse, you probably missed out on adding either Logan Thomas or Robert Tonyan earlier in the season. My point is, we tend to get trapped by drafting a TE in this range. A better strategy would be to take a flier from Tier 6 and be willing to cut them early if a better option pops up.
Fant is an elite talent, but the Denver receiving corps is too crowded for either Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater to support more than one or two fantasy-friendly pass-catchers a game.
Only Kelce ran more routes than Thomas (655) in 2020. However, Thomas only averaged 1.14 yards per route which ranked 32nd of 43 TEs. In addition, his target share will likely decrease after Washington improved its WR depth by adding Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries and Dynami Brown in the offseason.
Considering Ertz is still on the Eagles, Goedert seems a bit risky at his ADP. However, take Goedert here if you still think Ertz will be dealt before Week 1.
Considering Everett is no longer with the team, Higbee could return to his late-2019 form. Additionally, Matthew Stafford should elevate the entire Rams offense, making Higbee a solid pick at his current ADP (TE13).
Takeaway: Avoid this tier — not because of the TEs specifically, but because it can lead to sunk cost fallacy with your in-season management. You are better off just taking a flier at the end of the draft and being willing to cut them for a better option if they struggle early. Tyler Higbee is going much cheaper (TE13) so I’m ok with targeting him at ADP.
Tier 6
Mike Gesicki (MIA)
Robert Tonyan Jr. (GB)
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN)
Adam Trautman (NO)
Evan Engram (NYG)
Hunter Henry (NE)
Jonnu Smith (NE)
If you miss out on getting a TE from Tiers 1-4, you’ll want to take a flier on one of these TEs in the later rounds. We have seen one to two TEs in this range post top-five numbers over the past few seasons:
- 2020: Robert Tonyan, Logan Thomas
- 2019: Darren Waller
- 2018: George Kittle
Being able to punt at TE and still end up with player who finishes inside the top five would make you one of the favorites to win your league. But, of course, doing this is easier said than done.
Gesicki is in a similar spot to Fant. He’s one of the better up-and-coming TEs in the league. But the Dolphins’ passing offense has too many weapons and not enough yards to go around to support more than two or three pass catchers a week.
Let someone else overpay for Tonyan. His 21.2% TD and 88% catch rate are unsustainable. Additionally, the Packers adding two quality slot WRs in Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers will likely lower Tonyan’s target share.
Irv Smith Jr. and Trautman are the TEs that offer league-winning upside from this tier. Smith will take over as the Vikings lead TE this year after Kyle Rudolph signed with the Giants. Smith gave us a sneak peek of his upside when he started for an injured Rudolph Weeks 14-17 last season and posted the TE4 score.
Trautman has a chance to be the Saints’ No. 1 target in the passing game until Michael Thomas returns, which may not be until after their Week 6 bye. So he’s worth a flier, and if he doesn’t pan out after the first few games, you can quickly pivot to a different TE.
I’m not interested in either of the Patriots’ TE additions unless they announce Mac Jones as the Week 1 starter. Even then, it’s hard to see either Henry or Jonnu Smith posting TE1 numbers unless one of them gets hurt.
Takeaway: Target Irv Smith Jr. and Adam Trautman at ADP.
Tier 7
Credit: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Rob Gronkowski.Rob Gronkowski (TB)
Anthony Firkser (TEN)
Jared Cook (LAC)
Gerald Everett (SEA)
Cole Kmet (CHI)
Austin Hooper (CLE)
Blake Jarwin (DAL)
Eric Ebron (PIT)
Gronk was unplayable in fantasy until O.J. Howard suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4. Howard is back healthy, and Gronk is being over-drafted as a result.
Firkser is one of the top fliers from this group. He will be replacing Jonnu Smith as the Titans starting TE and should be the No. 3 target in this offense behind A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.
Everett is the other flier worth taking from this tier. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is already familiar with Everett from their time spent with the Rams. He’s the favorite to become Russell Wilson’s No. 3target, which comes with a ton of upside.
Takeaway: Target Anthony Firkser and Gerald Everett at ADP.
Tier 8
Zach Ertz (PHI)
Hayden Hurst (ATL)
O.J. Howard (TB)
Dawson Knox (BUF)
Mo Alie-Cox (IND)
C.J. Uzomah (CIN)
Chris Herndon (NYJ)
Dan Arnold (CAR)
Jordan Akins (HOU)
Ertz is worth a flier in deeper leagues as a way to get ahead of a potential trade to a TE-needy team.
Hurst offers rare TE1 injury upside for a TE. If Pitts were ever to miss time, Hurst could provide TE1/2 value. That makes him worth a flier in deeper TE-premium formats.
Takeaway: Target Zach Ertz and Hayden Hurst at ADP.