Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook
Sean Koerner — the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 — breaks down the final edition of his 2021 RB Draft Tiers. This series is part of our Action PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these Tiers, but also to Koerner’s real-time rankings in our 2021 Fantasy Draft Kit.
Running back continues to be the most important position in fantasy football.
There are two reasons RBs can decide the fate of your team:
- There are fewer workhorse backs in this pass-heavy era, so positional scarcity makes it critical to draft at least two workhorse RBs.
- RBs are most likely to miss time due to injury (or to lose their job), paving the way for late-round picks or even waiver wire pickups to emerge as league-winners.
As a result, many draft strategies focus on how many RBs to draft early on. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the Zero RB strategy, which I agree with … in theory. It mainly focuses on Reason No. 2 above, but ignores Reason No. 1 — that’s why I would dub my approach as the RB Surplus Strategy: I aim to draft two RBs before the end of Round 3/4 because, as I mentioned, it’s critical to acquire two who are set to open the season with a reliable workload. Then I target high-upside backs in the middle and late rounds.
With all that said, I’ve outlined the final version of my 2021 RB Draft Tiers below. These are based on my rankings as of Sept. 3, but reminder to check our 2021 Draft Kit for real-time rankings between now and the end of the season.
Fantasy RB Rankings & Tiers
| » Click here to download a PDF version of these tiers featuring notes for your drafts « | |
| Tier | Players |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey (CAR) |
| 2 | Dalvin Cook (MIN) |
| 3 | Alvin Kamara (NO) Derrick Henry (TEN) |
| 4 | Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) Nick Chubb (CLE) Austin Ekeler (LAC) Aaron Jones (GB) Saquon Barkley (NYG) |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor (IND) Joe Mixon (CIN) |
| 6 | Antonio Gibson (WAS) Najee Harris (PIT) Chris Carson (SEA) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) James Robinson (JAX) D’Andre Swift (DET) |
| 7 | Josh Jacobs (LV) David Montgomery (CHI) |
| 8 | Miles Sanders (PHI) |
| 9 | Gus Edwards (BAL) Mike Davis (ATL) |
| 10 | Darrell Henderson (LAR) Myles Gaskin (MIA) Chase Edmonds (ARI) Kareem Hunt (CLE) Damien Harris (NE) |
| 11 | Javonte Williams (DEN) Trey Sermon (SF) Melvin Gordon (DEN) Raheem Mostert (SF) Leonard Fournette (TB) Ronald Jones II (TB) A.J. Dillon (GB) James Conner (ARI) Kenyan Drake (LV) Michael Carter (NYJ) Zack Moss (BUF) Devin Singletary (BUF) Jamaal Williams (DET) |
| 12 | Tony Pollard (DAL) Sony Michel (LAR) Nyheim Hines (IND) James White (NE) Latavius Murray (NO) J.D. McKissic (WAS) Alexander Mattison (MIN) |
| 13 | Phillip Lindsay (HOU) David Johnson (HOU) Carlos Hyde (JAX) Malcolm Brown (MIA) Tevin Coleman (NYJ) Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Rashaad Penny (SEA) Damien Williams (CHI) Giovani Bernard (TB) Boston Scott (PHI) Justin Jackson (LAC) Darrel Williams (KC) Salvon Ahmed (MIA) |
| 14 | Devontae Booker (NYG) Marlon Mack (IND) Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Ty’Son Williams (BAL) Qadree Ollison (ATL) Darrynton Evans (TEN) Justice Hill (BAL) Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) Adrian Peterson (FA) Benny Snell (PIT) Ty Johnson (NYJ) Mark Ingram (HOU) Tarik Cohen (CHI) Jaret Patterson (WAS) Samaje Perine (CIN) Chris Evans (CIN) Jerick McKinnon (KC) |
Tier 1
Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
He should be the No. 1 overall pick in any draft.
Tier 2
Dalvin Cook (MIN)
He should be a top-two pick in any draft.
Tier 3
Alvin Kamara (NO)
Derrick Henry (TEN)
Kamara becomes the RB3 in PPR while Henry becomes the RB3 in standard. It’s a coin flip in half-point PPR.
Tier 4
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Nick Chubb (CLE)
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Aaron Jones (GB)
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
The last of the surefire RB1 tier.
Ezekiel Elliot is the safest bet, while Barkley is the riskiest. I’m not a fan of taking on risks in the first few rounds of the draft, so I’ve been passing on Barkley unless he falls to me in the middle-to-late picks of the second round).
Tier 5
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Joe Mixon (CIN)
The RB1/2 transition tier.
Joe Mixon carries top-five upside if he can stay healthy.
At the end of his rookie season, Jonathan Taylor flashed his potential, but he benefited from a soft schedule and the Colts providing positive game scripts — Nyheim Hines also lowers Taylor’s ceiling, making him fairly game-script dependent for a low-end RB1.
Tier 6
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
Najee Harris (PIT)
Chris Carson (SEA)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
James Robinson (JAX)
D’Andre Swift (DET)
Landing any of these backs as your RB2 would allow you to attack QB/WR/TE the next several rounds and set you up with an excellent starting lineup. Chris Carson typically falls towards the end of this tier, which is why I target him heavily.
Tier 7
Josh Jacobs (LV)
David Montgomery (CHI)
Tier 8
Miles Sanders (PHI)
Tier 9
Gus Edwards (BAL)
Mike Davis (ATL)
It’s easy to find flaws in each RB from Tier 7-9, but they should all be their team’s lead back and have good job security.
We have to remember that Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell were the kind of backs who were going in this range last season (when I urged you to avoid them), but I’ve found the RB2 tier to be much stronger in 2021 and am willing to target any of these Tier 7-9 backs at ADP.
Tier 10
Darrell Henderson (LAR)
Myles Gaskin (MIA)
Chase Edmonds (ARI)
Kareem Hunt (CLE)
Damien Harris (NE)
Things start to get a bit murky with this tier.
I would typically call this the “Frozen Pond” Tier because we need to be careful about overspending on RBs that sit atop an uncertain running back committee. However, they’re all going cheap enough (RB3/Flex range) to roll the dice on.
In addition, the RB position sees a significant drop once Tier 10 is off the board — that’s why I aim to draft at least three RBs before this tier dries up.
Tier 11
Javonte Williams (DEN) (+++)
Trey Sermon (SF) (+++)
Melvin Gordon (DEN) (+)
Raheem Mostert (SF) (+)
Leonard Fournette (TB)
Ronald Jones II (TB)
A.J. Dillon (GB) (++)
James Conner (ARI) (++)
Kenyan Drake (LV) (++)
Michael Carter (NYJ) (+++)
Zack Moss (BUF) (++)
Devin Singletary (BUF) (++)
Jamaal Williams (DET) (++)
This tier is when it becomes essential not to draft RBs based on my rankings, but rather group them into various buckets, and target based on your roster needs.
(+) = RBs who will offer value early in the season but will likely see their value decline as the season goes on: I would draft these types of backs if I’m weak at RB (because I prioritized QB/WR/TE in early rounds) and need an RB2 to begin the season.
(++) = RBs who are either in a 50/50 timeshare or the tail end of a RBBC: These are backs who have a big enough role to provide you with RB3/Flex value in a pinch while also carrying RB2+ upside if their RBBC counterpart goes down. I love the floor/ceiling combo these backs have.
(+++) = Backs who could get off to a slow start but see their value rise as the season goes on: These are rookie RBs who may begin the season in a RBBC, but have the potential to become their team’s lead back by the end of the campaign. They’re the most valuable RBs of this tier because they don’t need their RBBC counterpart to miss time in order to potentially return RB2 value.
Tier 12
Tony Pollard (DAL) (++)
Sony Michel (LAR) (++)
Nyheim Hines (IND) (+)
James White (NE) (+)
Latavius Murray (NO) (++)
J.D. McKissic (WAS) (+)
Alexander Mattison (MIN) (++)
(+) = PPR specialists: Pass-catching backs who offer a high-floor, low-ceiling combination. They can be helpful if you’re thin at RB and just need a handful of points from your RB2/Flex slot any given week.
(++) High-upside backups: These are backs who will need their team’s starting RB to miss time to be playable (most weeks). However, they would become instant RB1/2 values if their team’s starter were ever to miss time. They are like dormant volcanoes sitting on your bench, which is why I like to draft 2-3 of them.
Tier 13
Phillip Lindsay (HOU)
David Johnson (HOU)
Carlos Hyde (JAX) (+)
Malcolm Brown (MIA) (+)
Tevin Coleman (NYJ)
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) (+)
Rashaad Penny (SEA)
Damien Williams (CHI) (+)
Giovani Bernard (TB)
Boston Scott (PHI) (+)
Justin Jackson (LAC)
Darrel Williams (KC) (+)
Salvon Ahmed (MIA)
(+) = Backups who are in line to be their team’s lead back if their starter missed time: Anyone I didn’t highlight is similar, but isn’t a slam dunk to become a lead back.
Tier 14
Devontae Booker (NYG) (+)
Marlon Mack (IND) (+)
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) (+)
Ty’Son Williams (BAL) (+)
Qadree Ollison (ATL) (+)
Darrynton Evans (TEN) (++)
Justice Hill (BAL) (++)
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) (++)
Adrian Peterson (FA)
Benny Snell (PIT)
Ty Johnson (NYJ) (++)
Mark Ingram (HOU)
Tarik Cohen (CHI)
Jaret Patterson (WAS) (+)
Samaje Perine (CIN) (+)
Chris Evans (CIN) (++)
Jerick McKinnon (KC) (++)
This tier is simple:
(+) = High upside backup for all formats
(++) = High-upside backup with more value in PPR