Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
Sean Koerner — FantasyPros’ most-accurate draft ranker of 2019 — is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2021. This series is part of our PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these Tiers, but also to his real-time rankings as part of our 2021 Fantasy Draft Kit.
My quarterback draft strategy changes drastically based on whether it’s a 1QB or 2QB/Superflex format.
In a 1QB format, your league will typically draft only 13-15 QBs, meaning 17-19 starting QBs will be available on the waiver wire each week — that’s why streaming QBs in-season can be a viable strategy.
If I don’t land one of the top six QBs in 1QB formats, I’ll likely punt the position and plan on streaming in-season.
Just because you begin the season streaming QB does not mean you’ll be relying on the Kirk Cousins or Derek Carrs of the league all season long. Every season, it seems I stumble on a full-time QB1 at some point during the season. Last season, I ended up with Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts in leagues in which I didn’t even draft a QB.
The moral of the story is that you don’t have to draft a QB in 1QB leagues, and in some cases, it can be a winning strategy.
On the other hand, 2QB/Superflex leagues make the QB position much more valuable in fantasy (as it should be). The primary reason for that is easier to understand when looking at the projected points for the top 40 QBs:
As you can see, there’s a massive drop-off right after the QB30 is off the board. It makes sense when, considering at any given time, there are only 32 starting QBs. Therefore, you can get yourself into trouble in 2QB/Superflex formats if you don’t have 2-3 starting QBs at any given time.
Because of this, it’s a race against your league to draft 2-3 QBs, making them a precious asset in that format (which is much closer to how valuable QBs are in real life and is why I prefer these formats).
With all that said, let’s dive right into my 2021 QB tiers!
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
| Tier | Players |
|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) Josh Allen (BUF) |
| 2 | Kyler Murray (ARI) Lamar Jackson (BAL) |
| 3 | Dak Prescott (DAL) Russell Wilson (SEA) |
| 4 | Tom Brady (TB) Aaron Rodgers (GB) Justin Herbert (LAC) Jalen Hurts (PHI) |
| 5 | Ryan Tannehill (TEN) Matthew Stafford (LAR) |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Joe Burrow (CIN) Matt Ryan (ATL) Trey Lance (SF) Baker Mayfield (CLE) Kirk Cousins (MIN) Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) |
| 7 | Daniel Jones (NYG) Justin Fields (CHI) Derek Carr (LV) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) Deshaun Watson (HOU) Sam Darnold (CAR) Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS) Zach Wilson (NYJ) |
| 8 | Carson Wentz (IND) Jared Goff (DET) |
| 9 | Jameis Winston (NO) |
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Josh Allen (BUF)
The theme of Tiers 1-3 is that all of these QBs have QB1 overall upside.
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been able to play in all 16 games since the 2018 season when he finished as the QB1 overall. As long as he can stay healthy, though, I consider him the odds-on favorite to finish as the top fantasy QB.
Josh Allen enjoyed a massive Year 3 leap and finished as the overall QB1 in 2020. Last season may end up being closer to Allen’s ceiling, but I’m not expecting much of a drop-off in 2021.
Allen will still have offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and wide receiver Stefon Diggs, both of whom were critical to his breakout. Daboll trusted Allen enough to turn the Bills’ offense into a pass-heavy one (second-highest early pass down rate). He also dialed up the most play-action dropbacks in the NFL for Allen last season.
Considering you can get Allen a round later than Mahomes, I prefer Allen at his ADP.
Takeaway: Target Josh Allen at ADP
Tier 2
Kyler Murray (ARI)
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Kyler Murray flashed his QB1 overall ceiling from Weeks 1-7 last season when he was the top QB in fantasy. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 9 that he would later admit impacted his performance the rest of the way. Nevertheless, Murray still has room to grow as a passer, which means we could see a Year 3 breakout (a la Josh Allen).
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray.The additions of Rondale Moore (yards-after-catch ability) and A.J. Green (red-zone presence) could help Murray take that next step.
Lamar Jackson was the ultimate cheat code in 2019 when he scored roughly 70 points more than all other QBs. However, he came crashing back down to Earth and finished as the QB10 last season. The Ravens added receivers Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman, which should help Jackson bounce back to elite QB1 status.
Tier 3
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Russell Wilson (SEA)
Tier 3 is arguably the most critical in 1QB formats — it’s the last tier in which we can get QB1 overall potential. If I’m unable to land a QB before this tier is off the board, I typically punt the position altogether and plan on streaming to begin the season.
Dak Prescott was the QB1 from Weeks 1-4 before suffering his brutal season-ending (ankle) injury in Week 5 of 2020. However, it’s not the ankle that’s a concern for his Week 1 availability: Prescott is currently dealing with a shoulder injury that we need to monitor.
Russell Wilson offers the most value at the position when considering ADP. He flashed his QB1 overall upside from Weeks 1-8 when Seattle let him “cook.” New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will be implementing an uptempo Sean McVay-inspired offense that Wilson could thrive in.
Wilson represents a turning point in my draft strategy once he’s off the board, which only adds to his value.
Takeaway: Target Russell Wilson at ADP
Tier 4
Tom Brady (TB)
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
This is arguably the most critical tier for QB2/Superflex formats — once these QBs are off the board, the position flattens out into one massive QB2 Tier.
Tom Brady has sneaky upside heading into his second season with the Buccaneers. He has one of the best WR trios in the league and will have more chemistry with them this season. He could follow the same Year 2 leap we saw Peyton Manning take after joining the Broncos: In Year 1, Manning threw for 4,659 yards and 37 TDs as he assimilated with his new team. The following season, he erupted for 5,477 yards and 55 TDs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brady were to see a similar jump.
Jalen Hurts has the widest range of outcomes in this tier. His rushing ability gives him the highest ceiling, but he’s still a work in progress as a passer. There’s also a non-zero chance that Joe Flacco replaces Hurts, even when healthy, this season. However, Hurts is going late enough that I’m willing to roll the dice on him. As long as he stays healthy and starts all 17 games, his rushing ability would make him a lock to return value at ADP.
Takeaways:
- Target Jalen Hurts at ADP in any format
- Target Tier 4 in 2QB/Superflex formats
Tier 5
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
This “transition” tier represents that drop-off we highlighted in the chart at the top of this story.
Ryan Tannehill loses Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, but gains Julio Jones. As long as Jones stays healthy, Tannehill should provide low-end QB1 value — just consider that Jones’ body could be breaking down at 32 years old, making Tannehill a bit risky at ADP.
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Tannehill.Matthew Stafford’s lack of rushing ability limits his upside. However, he should be a high floor QB1/2 in Sean McVay’s scheme.
Takeaway: Target this tier in 2QB/Superflex formats
Tier 6
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Joe Burrow (CIN)
Matt Ryan (ATL)
Trey Lance (SF)
Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Trey Lance is the trickiest projection of this tier. If I were to “create a player” on Madden of the optimal fantasy football quarterback, it would look a lot like Lance — he has a cannon for an arm and is a prolific runner.
I’m excited to see what he can do in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and with weapons like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel at his disposal.
The main question is: When will he take over as the 49ers’ starter? Jimmy Garoppolo will likely be the Week 1 starter, and then it’s anyone’s guess as to how long he can keep his job. I would set the over/under at Week 6 (their bye), and once Lance does start, he’ll offer QB1 upside immediately — it’s why I consider him a “league winning” stash in leagues that start one QB.
A viable strategy would be to draft Lance at ADP and stream the position until he starts.
Kirk Cousins will be a popular streaming option for Week 1 in his matchup at the Bengals. I have currently ranked as my QB13 for Week 1.
Takeaways:
- Target Lance in 1QB leagues (he’s a bit riskier in 2QB formats)
- Target the rest of this tier in 2QB formats, but I consider these QBs as quality in-season streaming options for 1QB formats
Tier 7
Daniel Jones (NYG)
Justin Fields (CHI)
Derek Carr (LV)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Sam Darnold (CAR)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS)
Zach Wilson (NYJ)
Daniel Jones, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson are the high upside fliers to take in this tier. Of course, Deshaun Watson is the ultimate upside flier, but it’s anyone’s guess how many games he’ll play in 2021 (if any) and for which team.
Ryan Fitzpatrick carries a bit of risk in 2QB formats. If he struggles this season, the Football Team could turn to Taylor Heinicke, so keep that in mind before drafting Fitzpatrick.
Takeaway:
- Target Jones, Fields, Watson or Wilson if you are looking for upside
- Target Carr, Big Ben, Darnold if you are looking for a higher floor
Tier 8
Carson Wentz (IND)
Jared Goff (DET)
Carson Wentz is recovering from foot surgery and is racing against the clock to be ready for Week 1. However, he’s worth the gamble in 2QB/Superflex formats because the position starts to fall off a cliff after this tier.
Jared Goff may not be a potential “league winner,” but he is the cheapest QB that is a lock for 14+ starts as long as he stays healthy.
Takeaway: In 2QB/Superflex leagues, this tier represents your last chance to get a starting QB with excellent job security
Tier 9
Jameis Winston (NO)
Winston represents the tipping point for the position in 2QB/Superflex formats — it’s hard to project any QB from this point on for anything more than 10+ starts.
Winston has the inside track to become the Saints’ Week 1 starter, but he could have a short leash if he struggles, as Taysom Hill went 3-1 as a starter last season. In addition, Winston’s value takes a massive hit with Michael Thomas likely missing six games to start the season.
QBBCs
Cam Newton (NE)
Mac Jones (NE)
Taysom Hill (NO)
Drew Lock (DEN)
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN)
Tyrod Taylor (HOU)
Davis Mills (HOU)
These QBs are all in a battle to become the team’s Week 1 starter.
Cam Newton and Taysom Hill offer the most upside. Mac Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and Tyrod Taylor probably provide the highest floors (although it’s impossible to call any QB from this Tier as “safe”). If you are desperate, I’m ok taking a flier on any of these QBs (except for Davis Mills).
John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images. Pictured: Cam Newton, Mac JonesEarly Season Values
Jacob Eason (IND)
Andy Dalton (CHI)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
These QBs should be their team’s Week 1 starters and can be drafted much later in 2QB/Superflex formats. One way to hedge your bet on Trey Lance is to draft Jimmy Garoppolo as well — he can provide you with QB2/3 value until he eventually loses his job to Lance.
Longshot Backups
Taylor Heinicke (WAS)
Joe Flacco (PHI)
Jacoby Brissett (MIA)
It’s unlikely that any of these backups make starts unless their team’s starter goes down. However, there are scenarios in which Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa struggle enough to get benched.
These are the ultimate desperation fliers in deeper 2QB/Superflex leagues.