Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen
Sean Koerner — the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 — breaks down the final edition of his 2021 Draft Tiers. This series is part of our Action PRO subscription, which will not only grant you access to these Tiers, but also to Koerner’s real-time rankings in our 2021 Fantasy Draft Kit.
My quarterback draft strategy varies between 1QB or 2QB/Superflex formats.
In 1QB leagues, typically only 13-15 QBs are drafted, meaning 17-19 starting QBs will be available on the waiver wire each week. If I miss out on one of the top six QBs in 1QB drafts, I’m likely to skip drafting a QB altogether and instead stream the position in-season — a potential league-winning strategy. In 2020, for example, I was able to stream one of Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts in leagues that I didn’t draft a QB.
In 2QB/Superflex leagues, however, the QB position is much more valuable (as it should be). And there’s a massive drop-off in projected points right after QB30, making it imperative to draft 2-3 starting QBs in these formats.
Now, with all that in mind, I’ve outlined the final version of my 2021 QB Draft Tiers below. These are based on my rankings as of Sept. 3, but reminder to check our 2021 Draft Kit for real-time rankings between now and the end of the season.
Fantasy QB Rankings & Tiers
| » Click here to download a PDF version of these tiers featuring notes for your drafts « | |
| Tier | Players |
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) Josh Allen (BUF) |
| 2 | Kyler Murray (ARI) Lamar Jackson (BAL) |
| 3 | Dak Prescott (DAL) Russell Wilson (SEA) |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) Tom Brady (TB) Justin Herbert (LAC) Jalen Hurts (PHI) |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Matt Ryan (ATL)** Baker Mayfield (CLE)** Joe Burrow (CIN) Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Kirk Cousins (MIN) Justin Fields (CHI)* Trey Lance (SF) ** = target in 1QB formats ** = target in 2QB/Superflex formats |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Joe Burrow (CIN) Matt Ryan (ATL) Trey Lance (SF) Baker Mayfield (CLE) Kirk Cousins (MIN) Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) |
| 7 | Daniel Jones (NYG)** Derek Carr (LV)* Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS)** Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)* Carson Wentz (IND) Sam Darnold (CAR) Zach Wilson (NYJ) *** = high floor ** = high ceiling |
| 8 | Mac Jones (NE) Jameis Winston (NO) Jared Goff (DET) |
| 9 | Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) Tyrod Taylor (HOU) Deshaun Watson (HOU) |
| 10 | Taysom Hill (NO) Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) Drew Lock (DEN) |
| 11 | Davis Mills (HOU) Andy Dalton (CHI) Cam Newton (FA) Taylor Heinicke (WAS) Jacob Eason (IND) Gardner Minshew (PHI) Jacoby Brissett (MIA) |
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
These two are co-favorites to finish as QB1 overall.
Tier 2
Kyler Murray (ARI)
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
These two dual-threat quarterbacks are the next-best bets to finish as the top QB in 2021.
Tier 3
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Russell Wilson (SEA)
This is the last chance to grab a quarterback who has overall QB1 upside, while also allowing you to focus on RB/WR/TE in the first four to five rounds. This feels like the sweet spot to attack quarterback in 1QB leagues.
Tier 4
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Tom Brady (TB)
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Welcome to the “I don’t want to begin the season streaming QB, so I’m going to overspend on a QB” Tier.
Rodgers, Brady and Herbert offer an excellent floor and ceiling combo. Still, you can probably churn out similar value by streaming the position early in the season and stashing Justin Fields or Trey Lance on your bench until they win their respective teams’ starting job.
Jalen Hurts is worth taking in Rounds 8-9 since he has QB1 overall upside with his rushing ability.
Tier 5
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
I’ll probably avoid this tier in 1QB formats. However, in 2QB/Superflex formats, these guys are worthwhile targets at their current ADP considering the position levels off quite a bit once they’re off the board, hence the massive Tier 6.
Tier 6
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Matt Ryan (ATL)
Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Joe Burrow (CIN)
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Justin Fields (CHI)
Trey Lance (SF)
* = target in 1QB formats
** = target in 2QB/Superflex formats
It’s critical to understand the type of QBs you want to target, depending on whether you’re in a 1QB or 2QB/Superflex format.
In 1QB leagues, if you don’t have a QB before your draft reaches this tier, you’re likely better off streaming the position to open the season — a perfectly acceptable strategy. But if that is the case, you’ll want to consider stashing a QB like Justin Fields or Trey Lance to secure a potential every-week QB1 for later in the season.
Lance offers the highest upside of the two rookies thanks to the 49ers’ scheme, surrounding talent and his dual-threat ability. However, he also has the most downside considering Jimmy Garoppolo has a much better chance of hanging onto the starting job (potentially for the entire season) than Andy Dalton does in Chicago.
Fields is much more likely to become the Bears’ starter early in the season (I’m guessing by Week 4 at the latest), so he is a safer bet. He also has the dual-threat ability that will make him a potential QB1 value, but he’ll be held back a bit by the Bears scheme.
In 2QB/Superflex formats, it’s more important to ensure you have two or three starting QBs at all times. Therefore it’s less important to “shoot for the moon” in this range, and it’s ideal to go with safer options like Matt Ryan or Baker Mayfield — they may not single-handedly win your league, but knowing that you can get a solid score out of your QB2 slot for all 17 games is invaluable in those formats.
Tier 7
Daniel Jones (NYG)
Derek Carr (LV)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS)
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Carson Wentz (IND)
Sam Darnold (CAR)
Zach Wilson (NYJ)**
* = high floor
** = high ceiling
This tier represent your last chance to draft a high floor or ceiling QB2 in 2QB/Superflex formats.
You really can’t go wrong with any of these QBs, but I labeled which ones offer a high ceiling or floor. I would consider taking a “high floor” QB from this tier if I drafted Hurts as my QB1, or drafted Fields or Lance to stash on my bench. You would want a Derek Carr or Big Ben as your QB2/3 to give that position a bit more stability.
Tier 8
Mac Jones (NE)
Jameis Winston (NO)
Jared Goff (DET)
Mac Jones and Jared Goff should start all 17 games, barring injury, which provides you a safety net in 2QB/Superflex formats if you need to target a QB2/3 late in the draft.
Jameis Winston will be the Saints’ Week 1 starter, but Taysom Hill will still take a handful of snaps under center each game and could end up replacing Winston at any time. He’s a risky pick, but is going late enough he may be worth the gamble.
Tier 9
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN)
Tyrod Taylor (HOU)
Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Bridgewater and Taylor will start for their respective teams in Week 1. However, neither offers a high ceiling or is a lock to start all 17 games.
It’s still a mystery how the Texans or the NFL will handle Deshaun Watson this year. Considering Week 1 is around the corner, and we still don’t have clarity, I’m staying away.
Tier 10
Taysom Hill (NO)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Drew Lock (DEN)
These are QBs that I’m projecting to start fewer than eight games on the season but have a wide range of outcomes. I would guess that one of them will crush their ADP, but it’s anyone’s guess which one it will be. You could roll the dice here at the end of your 2QB/Superflex draft if you are desperate.
I’m also comfortable with pairing Garoppolo with Trey Lance. That would allow you to leverage Lance’s massive ceiling, with Jimmy G as a safety net as long as he remains the 49ers’ starting QB.
Tier 11
Davis Mills (HOU)
Andy Dalton (CHI)
Cam Newton (FA)
Taylor Heinicke (WAS)
Jacob Eason (IND)
Gardner Minshew (PHI)
Jacoby Brissett (MIA)
This is a “desperation only” Tier of potential Week 1 starters as well as backups who play behind a QB who could get benched if they struggle.