Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: Which Subway Series Side Has Betting Value? (Saturday, September 11)

Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Gallo

Yankees vs. Mets Odds

Yankees Odds -125
Mets Odds +105
Over/Under 8 (-120/+100)
Time 7:40 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Before stating anything about the “value” or the on-the-field importance of this game, it’s more important to acknowledge the significance of this date. On the 20th anniversary of 9/11, we remember those that were lost.

MLB put forth this special Subway Series as a way to commemorate this date. Both teams will be wearing first responder caps, 2001 Mets manager Bobby Valentine will throw the first pitch to 2001 Yankees manager Joe Torre, and more than a few charitable organizations will be represented in pre-game ceremonies, including:

  • Tuesday’s Children
  • Answer The Call
  • FeelGood Foundation
  • Visionary Network from the 9/11 Museum
  • the New York Police and Fire Widows’ & Children Benefit Fund

It’s also a huge game for both the Yankees and Mets. Both New York teams are making their final playoff push — the Yankees stand just a half-game ahead of Toronto for the second AL Wildcard spot, while the Mets are still five games back in the NL East race with only 20 games left to go.

Behind 10 strikeouts from Tylor Megill, the Mets won big in the series opener, extending the Yankees losing streak to seven in the process.

With so much on the line for both teams, which New York team will step up in this one?

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New York Yankees

It’s a terrible time to be a Yankees fan. The Bronx Bombers are treading water in these monumental final games.

In the week since the losing streak started, the Yankees are batting .202 with a .596 OPS while striking out 26% of the time. Meanwhile, the pitching staff has posted a MLB-worst 1.68 WHIP and a 5.90 FIP during that stretch.

On September 3, the Yankees started a 20 games in 20-day stretch, meaning their next day off isn’t until September 23. The pitching staff is tired, the bats are cold, and the Yanks are traveling to Baltimore in two days.

Corey Kluber gets the ball in this huge game for the Yankees. After throwing a no-hitter at Texas on May 19, Kluber made one other start and went straight to the IL.

He returned form the IL on August 30, and has since made two starts and pitched 7 2/3 total innings. He was shelled in those games to the tune of nine hits, five walks, and seven earned runs.

It’s hard to project Kluber’s start, but the Yankees should hope he pitches deeper into the game. New York’s bullpen has pitched the fourth most innings (30 1/3) with the fifth highest FIP (6.03) over the past week.

New York Mets

The Mets bounced back big yesterday after dropping two of three to Miami in their previous series.

Don’t look now, but Francisco Lindor has been heating up again. In 10 September games, he’s got a .904 OPS and three home runs, including this one last night:

In fact, the entire Mets lineup has been heating up recently. The Mets have posted an .800 OPS and a 117 wRC+ this month, both stats that rank among the top seven MLB teams.

However, I just can’t help but think it’s too little, too late. The Mets season has been riddled with injuries, controversy, winning and losing, and it’s fair to say they’ve been a little unlucky. But to erase a five-game deficit in the final 20 is probably too much to ask.

Taijuan Walker gets the start, which is largely bad news for Mets faithful.

At the end of May, Walker had a 2.18 ERA and a 2.53 FIP, and many across the league thought he’d be another asset in what was a deadly pitching rotation.

Since then, he’s posted a 5.40 ERA and a 5.45 WHIP while raising his season-long numbers to a 4.15 ERA and a 4.42 xERA. The Mets went 7-9 in his 16 starts since June 1, while Walker went 3-8 in decisions.

Yankees-Mets Pick

Despite their pathetic loss last night, the public still loves the Yankees as short favorites. At the time of this writing, Yankees ML has pulled in about 75% of the tickets and 80% of the handle.

Surprisingly, the Mets have won three of their four games against the Yankees this season. That includes a Gerrit Cole start that the Mets stole at Yankee stadium back in early July.

Expand these trends a little more, and you’ll see the Mets have taken five of their last seven games vs. the Yankees at Citi Field. Considering the Mets have won nine of their last 13, while the Yankees have lost seven straight, I’m banking on the Mets again in this game.

The starting pitching matchup is questionable, but the Mets currently have advantages in the bullpen, lineup, and across the defense. I love betting home underdogs, and I like this one at anything better than even money.

Pick: Mets ML (+105 | Play to +100)

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