UFC 260 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Gillian Robertson vs. Miranda Maverick (Saturday, March, 27)

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Gillian Robertson.

Gillian Robertson vs. Miranda Maverick Odds

Robertson odds +134
Maverick odds -167
Over/Under 2.5 (-177 / +130)
Venue UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Time Approx. 10:30 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN PPV
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings

No. 15-ranked women’s Flyweight contender Gillian Robertson is set to face off against relative newcomer Miranda Maverick at UFC 260 Saturday. Robertson enters the bout coming off a loss while Maverick shined in her debut winning by TKO against Liana Jojua in October.

Below I’ll preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Robertson Maverick
Record 9-5 10-2
Avg. Fight Time 8:50 5:00
Height 5’5″ 5’3″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach (inches) 63″ 65″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 5/17/95 7/1/97
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.05 9.80
SS Accuracy 51% 51%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.10 6.00
SS Defense 51% 62%
Take Down Avg 2.64 0.00
TD Acc 46% 0%
TD Def 0% 0%
Submission Avg 0.9 0.0
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Over $4,500 total for the tourney

This fight was originally scheduled for UFC 258 in February, but had to be postponed due to COVID protocols.

Maverick opened as a much more significant favorite (-225) before the original fight, but the more-experienced Robertson received most of the early action. Maverick re-opened at -175 after the bout was rescheduled, and has generally settled into that range.

Aggressive strikers like Maverick have posed a problem for Robertson, whose own standup game has improved (though not as fast as some fans would have hoped) to complement her potent ground game. And she often reacts poorly when her opponents land strikes.

Robertson needs to get this fight to the mat (2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes, 46% accuracy) and either find a submission (six of here nine wins) or grind out a decision with top control (2-3 on the scorecards) to hit her win condition.

While Maverick’s takedown defense is one of the weaker parts of her own game, she’s still just 23-years-old, making significant improvements from one fight to the next, and is arguably the prospect with a higher ceiling of the two.

Robertson vs. Maverick Pick

The problem with Robertson is that we haven’t seen her make those improvements on the feet (Ex. 8-of-33, 24.2% from range vs. Cortney Casey on June 20, 2020) over three years in the UFC, and if she can’t get the takedowns, she will likely wilt under Maverick’s pressure.

I don’t show any current betting value on this fight, but I might play Robertson if her moneyline crosses back over +150. 

The Pick: No Bet


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