Barcelona vs. Granada Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (-121 / -103)|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 1 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||beIN Sports|
|Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Barcelona continue their La Liga title campaign on Thursday when they host Granada at Camp Nou.
Barcelona have completely turned their season around after a difficult start. The Spanish giants now control their own destiny, as they’re two points behind league leaders Atletico Madrid with a game in hand.
They have a title-deciding match against Atletico next weekend but need to take care of business against Granada on Thursday and Valencia on Sunday to make sure that match actually means something.
Granada are on the cusp of finishing in the top half of the table for the second-straight season since their promotion to the top flight. However, they are in a bad run of form over the past few months, with only four wins in their last 14 matches in La Liga play. They’ve also struggled away from home, with only three wins in 16 tries, so this match could get ugly.
Barcelona’s dominance since the calendar turned to 2021 was mainly due to the fact that they were beating up on lesser competition, as only two matches have come against the current top four.
However, its underlying metrics are really impressive, as Barcelona have registered up a +22.45 xGD since the new year, according to Understat.
The powerhouse has been scoring goals in bunches this season, averaging a league-leading 2.26 xG per match. Messi, himself, is having another dominant year and is currently the top goal scorer in league play with 25 goals already this season.
Barcelona have been incredibly dominant in La Liga when they are not facing Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid or Sevilla. In 27 matches versus teams outside the top four, Barcelona have created 64.06 xG, while only allowing 29.62 xG.
They dominated Granada earlier this season winning 4-0 on the road, so I expect them to cruise to victory this afternoon.
Despite being in ninth place, Granada are actually really struggling in La Liga this season. They have only five wins since the calendar turned to 2021 and have really struggled on the road all season long.
Granada are 0-4-1 on the road against teams ahead of them in the table and have been outscored 16 to 5. Their expected goals record is also pretty horrific on the road, as they have a -16.20 xGD in only 16 away matches this season.
The biggest issue for Granada is they are desperately struggling to create chances in front of net. For the season, Granada are only averaging 1.07 xG per match, which will not work against a powerful side like Barcelona.
Additionally, they’re allowing 1.75 xG per match in their last five matches, so they need to drastically improve if they’re going to hang with Barcelona.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I think Barcelona should cruise to victory in this one and will be giving this match all of their focus since they basically need to to win out to capture the La Liga title.
Therefore, I am going to back Barcelona’s spread of -3 at a juicy price of +180 (DraftKings).
Pick: Barcelona -3 (+180)