West Brom vs. Manchester United Odds
|West Brom Odds||+850|
|Manchester United Odds||-335|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+145 / -182)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
Manchester United continues its push toward the top of the table on Sunday when it travels to take on bottom-of-the-table side West Brom.
It’s been an absolute disaster of a season for the Baggies, who are in the relegation zone and showing no signs of getting out. West Brom has allowed the most goals in the Premier League and has scored the least amount, which is a terrible combination if you’re trying to stay up in the top division.
It almost got a result when it faced Manchester United earlier this season at Old Trafford, so does it have a chance at getting a result at the Hawthornes?
Manchester United is in the middle of a title race and cannot afford to drop points. Its cross-city rival, Manchester City, is on an absolute tear at the moment and is six point ahead of the Red Devils in the table.
So, United cannot afford to drop points to 19th-place West Brom on the road.
It’s hard to overstate how bad West Brom has been this season. Currently sitting in 19th place is actually one spot better than the Baggies should be, as they have the lowest amount of expected points at 12.84, per Understat.
The biggest issue for West Brom this season is that it’s failed to create any chances in front of net. For the season, the Baggies are averaging only 0.71 xG per match, which is one of the lowest rates in Premier League history.
Additionally, they’ve created only 7.99 xG in 11 home matches this season. So, I have a hard time seeing how the Baggies are going to break down Manchester United’s defense.
Things maybe wouldn’t be so bad for West Brom if its issues were reserved for one side of the pitch. However, that is not the case, as West Brom has allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League at 2.06 xG per match.
It also has not been competitive defensively against the top four, allowing 2.47 xG per match.
So, I have a hard time seeing how it’s going to shut down Manchester United’s prolific offense.
Despite being in second place in the Premier League table, Manchester United’s results are a little better than their underlying metrics.
The Red Devils are only fifth in expected goal differential and fourth in expected points. The reason for that is because they’ve been a bit fortunate in front of net, as they’ve scored 49 goals on the season but created only 41.65 expected goals.
However, Manchester United has been dominant on the road this season, picking up 27 of a possible 33 points, which is the best mark in the Premier League. It also has a +6.28 xGD in its 11 away matches this season.
Manchester United only defeated West Brom, 1-0, at home the last time these two teams met, but the Red Devils completely dominated the match. They outshot the Baggies, 17-7, and dominated the expected goals battle 2.57-0.69.
Manchester United should have no trouble at the Hawthornes on Sunday.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I think Manchester United’s offense is going to be able to run rampant all over the Baggies on Sunday. West Brom really struggled defensively the last time these two met, and I don’t think it gets lucky for a second time with Manchester United creating 2+ expected goals.
Therefore, I am going to back Manchester United’s team total of over 2.5 goals at +120.
Picks: Manchester United Team Total Over 2.5 goals (+120).