South Carolina vs. Tennessee Odds

Tennessee has struggled to gain consistency throughout the season, alternating big wins with head-scratching losses. After an early season home loss to Alabama, the Volunteers reeled off three straight wins before suffering consecutive defeats at Florida and home to Missouri. The Volunteers have suffered additional road defeats at Mississippi and LSU to drop them to fifth place in the SEC at just 7-5.

South Carolina suffered a month-long COVID pause in December, disrupting its entire season. The Gamecocks are now on a three-game losing streak and head to Knoxville with injuries to two starters.

Can the Volunteers cover a big double-digit line at home, or can Frank Martin get his Gamecocks to rise to the occasion against a superior opponent?

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The Matchup

South Carolina will enter this game short-handed, potentially down two starters. Sophomore Jermaine Couisnard (9.7 PPG) left the last game with an ankle injury and did not return. Junior Justin Minaya (8.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) left with a head injury in the last minute of play. The status of both players is unknown, making a road game at Tennessee even more challenging.

The Gamecocks rely heavily on juniors AJ Lawson (17.9 PPG) and Keyshawn Bryant (14.1 PPG) for most of their offense. Aside from Couisnard and Minaya, the rest of the roster consists of role players who average about five points per game.

Head coach Frank Martin has done a great job preparing his team against superior opponents. The Gamecocks have provided strong performances, and covered the spread at LSU, at Florida and home against Alabama.

Martin’s foundational belief in pressure defense has guided South Carolina to the highest defensive turnover rate in SEC play. They rank directly ahead of Tennessee and have forced 20 or more turnovers in each of their past three games.

While the Gamecocks have below-average offensive metrics, they have remained competitive with offensive rebounding. South Carolina is also first in conference play in offensive rebounding percentage, led by Minaya’s 2.93 offensive boards per game.

The struggles come from the field, where South Carolina shoots just 31.3% from 3P and 48.5% from 2P among SEC competition. The Gamecocks are a poor free-throw shooting team as well, ranking 319th in the country at 65.1%.

Tennessee struggles on offense, but is elite defensively. They rank third overall in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, holding opponents to under 30% from 3-point range and just 46.4% from inside the arc.

With the exception of their last win against Georgia (a game they led 44-26 at halftime), the Volunteers held their prior three opponents to 61 points or less at Thompson-Boling Arena. If Couisnard, Minaya, or both cannot play in this game, South Carolina is unlikely to break that 60-point plateau.

Tennessee is led by freshman Jaden Springer (12.2 PPG). The 6-foot-4 guard has exploded the last three games, averaging 24.7 PPG against Kentucky, Georgia, and LSU. The Volunteers are 10-1 this season when Springer scores in double-digits. Keon Johnson (10.1 PPG), John Fulkerson (9.7 PPG) and Victor Bailey Jr. (9.6 PPG) round out a balanced scoring attack.

The floor general of the Volunteers’ attack is sophomore Santiago Vescovi (9.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 39.6% 3P). He has helped solidify the Tennessee scoring attack with 16 PPG over the past two contests.

Tennessee’s length and versatility will disrupt the South Carolina attack. Yves Pons, Springer and sophomore Josiah-Jordan James all average more than 1.2 steals per game. Pons and James also average more than 1.1 blocks per game.

Coming off a bad 78-65 loss at LSU, I expect the Volunteers’ best effort at home against an inferior opponent.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I’m assuming Couisnard is out, and will lay the 10 points with Tennessee.  If Minaya is also ruled out, the Gamecocks will be severely short-handed.

Look for South Carolina to slow this game to a crawl, hoping to limit possessions and increase offensive variance. With Tennessee’s suffocating defense, the Volunteers will be very comfortable at that pace.

With Vescovi’s increasing offense, Springer and Johnson’s versatility, and the length of Pons and James, this should be a dominant Tennessee win at home. Head coach Rick Barnes will have his team motivated after the loss in Baton Rouge, and should jump on the Gamecocks early.

I can’t see South Carolina scoring consistently without Couisnard and possibly Minaya, and Pons’ superior defense will handcuff Lawson.

Back the Volunteers to cover the big line for a critical SEC home victory. I’m also betting the under on a game total that should rise closer to tipoff.

Pick: Tennessee -10, Under 141.5 | Play up to Tennessee -11, Total down to Under 141

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