NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Fade Chris Paul’s Assists Numbers (Feb. 20)

Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Paul.

Plus Juice Day was a success! We played three props yesterday at plus juice and hit on two of them. Two out of three is a success on any day, but it’s a slam dunk at plus juice.

It’s also a good reminder that prop lines can be volatile.

These lines tend to vary wildly from one book to the next. It’s always a good idea to have a few book options available, and be sure to use our Props Tool to shop around for the best lines out there. That’s especially true on Plus Juice Day, but it’s true today and any other day.

For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Kelly Oubre, Over 6.5 Rebounds (+105)

Warriors vs. Hornets Warriors -1.5
Time | TV 8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Bets Book BetMGM

The Warriors continue to play very small with James Wiseman and Kevon Looney sidelined.

Those absences have shifted Draymond Green to center for the time being, and Green has been awesome as the point center of the Warriors’ attack. We’ve played some of his overs successfully in this space, but today we’re going for one of his teammates.

The one thing we’ve always known about Kelly Oubre is that he is insanely athletic. That’s what leads to the huge highlight moments, the flashbulb steals and monster dunks. It’s also what has helped lead to increased rebounding from Oubre of late when this Warriors team needs its wings to play big.

Over these last nine games with point center Draymond, Oubre has also taken on a bigger role — and emphasis on big.

He’s playing big minutes at 34.4 per game, and he’s averaging 7.2 boards each night, going over this line in six of those nine. And really, the numbers are even stronger if you consider just the last six games. Oubre is up to 8.0 RPG over that stretch and has gone over this number in all but one of them.

A game against the Hornets should be high-paced and high-scoring, and that means plenty of rebounds to go around.

Charlotte ranks dead last in defensive rebounding rate, and Oubre has the highest rebounding percentage of his career. I love him at plus odds here but would happily play to -120.

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Chris Paul, Under 9.5 Assists (-134)

Suns vs. Grizzlies Suns -4
Time | TV 9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Bets Book FanDuel

It’s never a ton of fun to fade the Point God, but the numbers suggest this line is a bit ambitious for Chris Paul.

The Suns are still trying to figure out exactly who does what in this offense, but lately, they seem to have found a rhythm with a little more from Devin Booker and a bit less from CP3, at least when both are on the court together.

Booker’s scoring and overall numbers are up in February, while Paul is saving his numbers for the minutes with Booker off the court.

Paul is averaging 8.6 assists per game on the season. That’s higher than he had last year in Oklahoma City or either season in Houston, but it’s still well below his career average from the Hornets and Clippers days.

Paul’s minutes are down just a little at his age, and he’s just not seeing quite as much of the ball with Booker next to him. It’s a setup that more closely mirrors Paul’s Thunder and Rockets teams, with a star wing scorer next to him.

Paul has hit double-digit assists only nine times in 27 games with the Suns, going under this line 67% of the time, and two of those overs were big games with Booker sidelined.

He’s under in 16-of-23 games with Booker, hitting this under almost 70% of the time. And with Booker taking on a bigger role more recently, that trend is moving even further in our direction. Paul has gone under 9.5 dimes in all but two of the last 10 Suns games.

The juice here is meant to scare us away at -134, but don’t take the bait. Our awesome EV calculator on the Action App reminds me that we only have to hit this under 58% of the time for it to be profitable.

The numbers so far this season suggest this line would still be in our favor as high as -230. I wouldn’t play it that high and won’t like it as much if the line drops to 8.5, but I’ll grab the under 9.5 up to -165.

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Rui Hachimura, Over 12.5 Points (-103)

Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers -4.5
Time | TV 10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Bets Book DraftKings

I enjoy checking in on these young players from time to time, and it looks like sophomore Rui Hachimura is starting to find his rhythm again for the Wizards.

It’s been an exceedingly weird season for the Wizards. They’re still adjusting to new life with Russell Westbrook and have seen big chunks of their roster missing for long stretches of time due to health protocols.

Hachimura missed the first four games of the season, then missed three more in January, which ended up meaning he didn’t play for almost three weeks in that stretch because the entire Wizards team was off for so long.

When Hachimura got to play again at the end of January, it took him a couple of games to find his footing, but February has gone much better so far.

Hachimura opened the month with 24 points, and he’s averaging 13.8 PPG in 10 games so far this month, with double-digit points in all but one of those games.

The Wizards still don’t play much defense, so they have no real choice but to just run up the score and hope they outscore the opponent in front of them. That’s basically how the Blazers take things, too, so there should be a whole lot of points tonight.

That also suits Hachimura, who has always been a smooth scorer but not particularly good on defense.

Portland’s forwards are not really scorers, so that shouldn’t be a problem for him tonight. Hachimura has gone over this point total in five of his last six games, and he tends to settle in around 14 or 15 points a night.

That’s right where we project him tonight, and the matchup favors him getting plenty of chances to get there.

I’ll play the over here to -120.

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