Kathryn Riley/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Griffin Canning.
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from on Wednesday’s Major League Baseball card. Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like, including an over and an under play.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 45-36, +3.1 Units, +3.8% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Randy Dobnak (MIN) — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+102)
| Yankees vs. Twins | Yankees (-186) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Randy Dobnak is an interesting player to look at and not just because of his colorful facial hair. In three seasons, Dobnak has only 107 innings of experience in relief and starting appearances. This season, Dobnak started off in the bullpen, earning a 8.16 ERA in 14 1/3 innings of work in seven games.
As a result of Dobnak’s disastrous performance in the bullpen, he was demoted to the minors where he did well in three starts. Three weeks later, he was promoted to Minnesota’s roster and is now part of the starting rotation.
As a starter, Dobnak has mostly done well, but has a low strikeout rate. Additionally, he is pitching for many innings. The question is: will Dobnak continue to stay in games long enough to go over his low strikeout totals.
Dobnak is averaging almost six innings per start, which is good in a league where the average starter is pitching for only five innings. However, his strikeout rate of 6.19 strikeouts per nine innings is one of the lowest in the league. Over the course of a typical Dobnak start, he can be expected to have 4.13 strikeouts.
Against a Yankees team that is averaging 8.94 strikeouts per game, Dobnak should go over his strikeout total. At close to even money this is a good bet to make, and I would bet it up to -115.
Pick: Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+102 –play up to -115)
- Action Labs Score: 7
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
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Griffin Canning (LAA) — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
| Royals at Angels | Angels -150 |
| Time | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Griffin Canning is like most Angels starting pitchers. He isn’t awful, but he isn’t great. Canning has a 4-4 record with a 5.82 ERA, 4.11 xFIP and a WAR of 0 this season. In the past, he has been a decent pitcher, but hasn’t been exceptional. Despite pitching worse this season, Canning has the highest strikeout rate of his career.
The question for Wednesday’s game is if he can stay in the game long enough to have more than six strikeouts.
In five of his nine starts, Canning has had seven or more strikeouts. However, with Canning there is a catch. He hasn’t pitched for many innings per start. Even in a league where the average starting pitcher is now pitching around five innings, Canning is pitching even less, as he only averages less than 4 2/3 innings outing.
With his strikeout rate of 10.38 strikeouts per nine innings, in a typical Canning start, he pitches for about 4 2/3 innings and has only 5.26 strikeouts. Canning now faces a Kansas City lineup averaging only 8.67 strikeouts per game, which is the 12th best in the league.
Most sites are offering Canning’s strikeout under at 5.5, so we’ll back it at ripe +108 odds at FanDuel as our top pick.
Pick: Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
- Action Labs Score: 9 (Based on 5.5)
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
