Angels vs. Mariners Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-114 / -107)|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday at 10 a.m. ET and via DraftKings.|
The Los Angeles Angels will try for their second consecutive series win after defeating the Seattle Mariners 10-5 on Saturday. Mike Trout will look to stay hot after hitting his seventh home run of the season in yesterday’s win. No opposing player has had more success hitting the long ball in Seattle than Trout: Yesterday’s home run was the 28th of his career at T-Mobile Park.
Dylan Bundy will start for Los Angeles in the series finale, and Seattle’s Justus Sheffield will oppose him. The Mariners left-hander, Sheffield, has endured two nightmarish starts against the Angels in his career. Sheffield lost each of those starts with a combined ERA of 11.74.
However, I’m not sure if his struggles against the Angels should be much of a surprise. The truth is that Sheffield is just another name on a long list of Mariners pitchers whom the Angels have dominated in this rivalry.
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles got off to a 6-2 start this season but cooled off after injuries forced star players like Anthony Rendon to be sidelined. Now, the lineup is back intact, and LA appears poised to mash the baseball yet again.
Despite the aforementioned injury woes, the Angels still report some impressive offensive statistics. Los Angeles ranks second with a .262 batting average, third with a wRC+ value of 113, fourth with a .428 slugging percentage, and sixth with a .323wOBA.
Navigating the Angels lineup can be difficult for any pitcher, particularly when you have to get through their 2-3-4 hitters in Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon.
Los Angeles might have an even better record (13-12) if it could have gotten more out of a few of Dylan Bundy’s starts this season. The Oklahoma native registered two quality starts in which he failed to win a decision. At 0-2, he’s still in search of his first win in 2021.
Bundy’s record, along with his 4.20 ERA, belies how well he’s pitched thus far. His xERA is 2.88 and 3.97 FIP suggest some positive regression could be in his future. Facing the Mariners might be a case of the right team at the right time for Bundy. He owns a 3-2 record and 2.45 ERA in seven career games against Seattle.
In fact, Bundy has recorded three complete games in his career, and two of them were against Seattle, including his only shutout.
Justus Sheffield is still finding his way in his fourth year in the big leagues. The Tennessee native is 1-2 on the season with a 5.32 ERA. He tends to have a lot of traffic on the base paths, as evidenced by his 1.59 WHIP.
While his high WHIP may be attributed to his 3.27 BB/9 ratio, hitters are also finding their way on base when they make contact. Opposing batters report a .353 average vs. Sheffield on balls that are put in play. The Angels should be able to get their share of men on base. Their current lineup has a .407 OBP against Sheffield in 27 plate appearances.
Good pitchers can often atone for their errors by striking out the next hitter after putting men on base. However, that’s not Sheffield’s motto, as his 8.18 K/9 ratio isn’t exactly elite. To his credit, the left-hander is more of a ground-ball pitcher. Sheffield’s 1.74 GB/FB ratio is promising, but he’s also been susceptible to allowing home runs: 15.8% of his fly balls have left the park.
There’s no question that Seattle has been one of the surprises in baseball this season. But, there are some matchups where the Mariners are likely at a disadvantage. Facing this Angels lineup with a dominant history against Seattle is certainly one of them.
In two career appearances against the Angels last year, Justus Sheffield allowed a total of 10 runs and eight walks in 7 2/3 innings of work. On Sunday, Sheffield must contend with an Angels lineup that has improved compared to last year.
But, perhaps the bigger story is the Angels’ dominance over the Mariners on the road in the last two decades.
Since the 2005 season, backing LA on the road in Seattle has yielded a profit of 15 units. That number is just too good to pass up — especially since the Angels boast advantages on the mound and at the plate on Sunday.
DraftKings is offering Los Angeles as a -152 favorite, and that’s exactly how I’d look to play this matchup.
Pick: Angels ML -152