Mets vs. Orioles Odds
|Time||Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings|
The New York Mets will head to Baltimore for a two-game series after winning two in a row against the Padres to finish a seven-game trip to the West Coast. New York is 29-23 this season and leads the National League East as the only team in the division over .500 and with a positive run differential.
The Orioles sit with the worst record in the American League, as expected. They enter Tuesday 21-38 with a minus-53 run differential. After losing 14 straight games, Baltimore has actually won four of its last five games and is coming into this one following series wins over Minnesota and Cleveland.
These two teams played a pair of games in Queens on May 11 and 12 with the Mets getting the win in each. Let’s break down whether that trend will continue.
New York Mets
Despite making his 11th start of the season, the second most on the Mets this season, David Peterson has struggled in his second big-league season. He is just 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA and got shelled for five runs while recording just one out against Arizona in his last outing
Peterson is still just 25 years old, and the former first-round pick has just 19 career starts under his belt. He was solid last season with a 3.44 ERA in nine starts. While he is allowing more hits and hard contact this year, his strikeout rate is up and walks are down this year.
Peterson is throwing his sinker way more this season, making it his most-used pitch at 35.1% from 15.8% last year. His sinker has been solid, but his fastball and slider have been hit around a lot.
Offensively the Mets have dealt with a ton of injuries. Albert Almora Jr., Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis are all on the injured list. Also, Michael Conforto, Kevin Pillar, Jonathan Villar and Pete Alonso have all missed time.
New York ranks just 28th in runs per game this season and finds itself 19th in batting average and 23rd in OPS and wOBA. The Mets look to be finally rounding into form after the slow start, though, as they have been fourth in the league in batting and third in OPS over the last two weeks. Villar has especially been on fire, batting .375 over the past 10 games.
The Orioles will start a left-hander of their own on Tuesday in Bruce Zimmermann, who is in the midst of an up-and-down season, literally.
The Baltimore native made the Orioles’ roster out of camp after making just one big-league start last season. After starting the year 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in six starts, Zimmermann was optioned to Triple-A on May 4.
Since returning to the show on May 16, Zimmermann has settled in and allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four appearances. The 26-year-old has been hit around this year, allowing a .303 batting average against, and really struggling to keep the ball in the yard. He has allowed 11 home runs in 10 games, surrendering a long ball in all but one of his outings this season.
Zimmermann throws his fastball 43.6% of the time, and it has been smoked this year for a .444 batting average against and .547 wOBA. His slider and curveball have been solid, but his heater has been one of the worst in the league.
Like the Mets, the Orioles offense has actually shown some improvement recently. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore ranks seventh in batting average and sixth in OPS and wOBA. The O’s actually lead the league in batting average, OPS and runs scored over the last seven days.
Baltimore’s offense has been led by Cedric Mullins and Trey Mancini, who are both having terrific seasons. Mullins is batting .322 on the year and Mancini is at .273 with 11 home runs and 44 RBIs. Over the past two weeks, Mullins has been on fire to the tune of a .420 batting average with a 1.231 OPS, and he leads the majors with 21 hits. He has 12 hits and three home runs in his last 20 at bats.
Neither of these pitchers is someone who exactly inspires any confidence or feel great about backing. While both have been bad, Zimmermann’s numbers indicate he should be even worse. He currently has a 4.96 ERA but an expected ERA of 6.25, which ranks in the bottom 5% of the league.
In each of their last seven games, both Peterson and Zimmermann have both allowed 19 earned runs. Peterson, however, did so on 28 hits, while Zimmermann allowed 43 hits. Zimmermann has 79.5% left on base percentage this year, which is right around the likes of Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. Expect more of those base runners to turn into runs soon.
Both of these starters average fewer than five innings per outing. These teams also each had an off-day on Monday and will have another on Thursday. That means we will get both bullpens at full strength and mangers likely be quick to turn to the ‘pen, knowing they have their full arsenal to use.
That is where the Mets should have a big advantage. It is strange to think of New York having one of the most reliable bullpens in the league, but that is what its relief corps has been this season. Over the last two weeks, Mets relievers have the best ERA in the league and a league-best .201 batting average against.
The Orioles bullpen ranks 24th in ERA over the last two weeks and teams are batting .262 against them, 26th in the league. The Mets are already 2-0 against Baltimore this season, and despite the Orioles mini-hot streak, New York is still the better team so I will back them at a reasonable price.
Pick: Mets -122 (play to -127)