Mariners vs. Tigers Odds
|Over/Under||9 (-104 / -118)|
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Thursday morning and via FanDuel.|
Two subpar teams playing a day game after an extra-innings game the night prior. What could go wrong?
A lot, actually. The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers closed the ninth inning tied up at 3-3. Then, the teams combined to score nine more runs in extra innings.
The Mariners pulled off the win, 9-6, but that victory came at great expense. Each team deployed six pitchers (five relievers) over 11 innings in order to get through a game that means little outside of draft position.
Seattle and Detroit will run it back on Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET — just 14 hours and 27 minutes from the official ending of last night’s game. Does Thursday’s rematch offer bettors anything to get excited about?
Mariners starting pitcher Justus Sheffield simply has not been “it.”
The former Indians and Yankees farmhand has accumulated a 4.60 career ERA in fewer than 150 innings pitched, per FanGraphs. Furthermore, he reports a 4.77 ERA in 2021 — with nearly one-third of his career innings coming this season.
The two best things going for Sheffield are (1) His increased fastball velocity; and (2) His walk rate (BB/9) staying below 4.0 during the past two seasons.
Sheffield can be good in spurts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his previous four starts. The issue is that he finds a way to sabotage himself. Sheffield has allowed seven walks versus 10 strikeouts in those positive outings.
Nonetheless, the Mariners do report one solid matchup advantage. The Detroit Tigers send left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander to the mound to defend Detroit’s home turf. Seattle has an average offense on the road against left-handed pitching (100 Weighted Runs Created Plus) and boasts about a top-10 batting average in that situation.
The Mariners offense is close to top-10 is most traditional categories and ISO against southpaws. Moreover, Seattle also ranks outside the top 10 with a .295 BABIP — the statistic that is widely regarded as the best indicator of luck — versus lefties.
It is unknown how long Tyler Alexander will pitch today, but if he gets a crack at one round of the Seattle batting order, he could put Detroit in a hole based on Seattle’s relative offensive success against lefties this season.
Tyler Alexander has one start and 15 relief appearances for Detroit. The Chicago product allows 20% of flyballs to leave the park and has three negative-value pitches among the four he offers to hitters.
Only 27% of Alexander’s pitches are swung at or called a strike. Seattle has one of the lower walk rates on the road, which may somewhat mitigate Alexander’s inability to fool hitters with an underwhelming pitching arsenal. Beyond that, there is little to get excited about from the former second-round pick.
The Tigers offense has been able to square up lefties at home, but the team has failed to convert batted balls into runs scored. The Tigers lead the majors in Medium Hit percentage at home against southpaws, but rank bottom-three in Hard Hit percentage and rank last in Home Run-to-Flyball (HR/FB) ratio. Detroit’s .344 BABIP and 85 wRC+demonstrate the team’s offensive inefficiencies.
Mariners vs. Tigers Pick
Predicting today’s lineups will be like hitting the lottery. The majority of these players will have spent approximately 12 hours away from Comerica Park before stepping back on the field on Thursday. On top of that, Alexander was picked to start for Detroit around the time last night’s game ended.
I have little feel for this game given the quick turnaround and underwhelming pitching matchup. The betting market appears similarly disenchanted: Both sides report the same moneyline odds and juice.
The run line is fine, but attaching any money to this game seems like betting to bet. FanDuel is the only book with a line up as of early Thursday morning — perhaps a sign from the betting gods.
Therefore, I’m opting to pass on betting this game at the current odds. However, if the Tigers moneyline is bet down to plus-money, then I’d jump in to bet the home dog.
Pick: Pass at current odds; Bet Tigers ML at plus-money.