Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Florida’s Tre Mann.
Florida vs. Auburn Odds
| Florida Odds | +1 |
| Auburn Odds | -1 |
| Moneyline | -104 / -112 |
| Over/Under | 155 |
| Time | TV | Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds as of Monday night and via PointsBet. | |
Florida and Auburn meet on Tuesday with a potential NCAA tournament bid on the line.
Florida is currently projected as a No. 7 seed in the tournament, but is in desperate need of another resume-building win. The Gators are only 7-5 in conference play and have only one win over the current KenPom top 25. A win at Auburn could be just what they need to solidify their place in the tournament.
Auburn is really struggling at the moment, losing four of its last five games. It all culminated on Saturday when LSU hung 104 points on the Tigers in a horrific defensive performance. Auburn is now 5-9 in the SEC and on the outside looking in at the NCAA tournament. The Tigers need to win out and to make a run in the SEC tournament to have any shot at making the NCAA tournament and it starts Tuesday night against Florida.
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When Florida has the ball
Florida’s offense is efficient when they get the ball inside early and often. The Gators are shooting 52.5% from 2-point range and a whopping 65% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math. In addition to their dominance scoring in the paint, Florida also has an offensive rebounding rate over 32%, which is the fourth-best mark in the SEC. They’ll have a fantastic advantage over Auburn on Tuesday night, because the Tigers are one of the worst interior defenses in the SEC.
Auburn has really struggled to defend all over the court during conference play, as they are allowing 1.06 points per possession. They allow over 56% on shot attempts at the rim and have the second-worst defensive rebounding rate in the SEC.
To make matters worse, they are also allowing almost 35% from 3-point range and have one of the lowest turnover rates in the SEC, per KenPom. Florida should have no trouble finding consistency on offense against Auburn’s defense.
When Auburn has the ball
The Tigers have been fantastic offensively this season ever since five-star freshman Sharife Cooper was reinstated to the team. Auburn is averaging 1.06 points per possession during SEC play, which is the third-highest rate in the conference. The reason for that is because they can score anywhere on the floor. The Tigers have the fifth-highest 2-point and 3-point percentages in the SEC and also shoot the highest percentage from the free throw line, per KenPom.
Florida has been the definition of average defensively this season, allowing 1.02 points per possession. The Gators do not have any distinct weaknesses, expect for one: defensive rebounding. Florida is allowing their opponents to grab 32% of their offensive rebounds, which is one of the worst rates in the conference.
That’s going to be a problem against Auburn, because the the Tigers have the second-best offensive rebounding rate in the SEC. If Florida isn’t able to keep the Tigers off the offensive glass, it could be a long night defensively.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Florida has a huge advantage inside against Auburn’s defense, so I think the Gators have the advantage on the road. Auburn’s defense showed on Saturday that it isn’t capable of shutting down above-average offenses, and the Tigers’ offense isn’t able to make up for their horrible defense.
I have Florida projected as a -1.53 favorite, so I think there is some value on the Gators moneyline at -104 odds.
Pick: Florida -104
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