Baylor vs. Houston Projected Odds: Our Spread, Total for NCAA Tournament Final Four

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Quentin Grimes.

#1 Baylor vs. #2 Houston Odds

Projected Spread Baylor -2.2
Projected Total 140.08
Projected ML Baylor 123
Time TBA
Projected odds based on our initial PRO Projections.


How Baylor & Houston Match Up

Baylor vs. Houston
179 Tempo 327
3 eFG% 128
102 TO% 57
4 OR% 2
287 FTR 169
130 DeFG% 1
3 DTO% 42
280 DR% 158
176 DFTR 336
All stats via KenPom.

What To Know About Baylor

For most of the season, most considered Baylor and Gonzaga as the two best teams in the country with almost no difference between them from a power ratings perspective. That has since changed as Baylor has dropped a few games, while Gonzaga has remained undefeated.

What happened to the Bears? Unfortunately, they had to deal with extreme covid issues inside the program, which led to a long pause in activities. Since they’ve returned, the Bears just haven’t been the same team, especially on the defensive end. Baylor has just looked much slower on that end and has been much more vulnerable off the dribble and in transition.

Can the Bears regain their pre-COVID form? That was the primary question heading into the tournament after suffering a loss in the Big 12 semis to Oklahoma State. It appears they have, so you can put the Bears back in Gonzaga’s neighborhood. With Davion Mitchell leading the charge, Baylor will be tough to beat. — Stuckey

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What To Know About Houston

There isn’t much that Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars don’t do well. They rank ninth in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom and are sixth overall. There’s really no weaknesses on a defense that has so much versatility and takes away everything in the paint. Houston is one of the country’s elite teams while playing at the 320th-ranked adjusted Tempo.

Quentin Grimes is the leading scorer at 17.9 points for a team that is full of players between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-8, including do-everything senior wing DeJon Jarreau, who recently recorded the first Cougar triple-double since Bo Outlaw in 1993. They are also extremely well-schooled under Kelvin Sampson. And like most Sampson, they are absolutely fantastic on the offensive glass — despite lacking elite size.

The Cougars’ size and athleticism will be a problem for any team, and they’re definitely going to be a contender for a Final Four run. Houston, we have a problem and it’s Houston for the rest of this field. — Matt Trebby


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