White Sox vs. Tigers Odds
|White Sox Odds||-165|
|Time||Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings|
In an American League Central matchup this weekend, the Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Chicago is comfortably in first place with a 38-24 record, while Detroit is fourth at 26-36.
The Sox have a +89 run differential, which is tied with the Dodgers for the best in the majors, while the Tigers have a -59 run differential, third worst in the league. On average, the White Sox win each game by 1.39 runs and the Tigers lose each game by .95 runs.
Generally, a team like Chicago should beat a team like Detroit 66% of the time. With the White Sox as -175 favorites (63.6% breakeven odds), the odds appear to be appropriately set.
Let’s dig into where there’s betting value in this matchup.
Giolito Backed by Surging White Sox Lineup
One reason why Chicago is a heavy favorite is because Lucas Giolito is set to start on the mound.
This season Giolito has a 5-5 record with a 3.88 ERA, 3.52 xFIP and 1.1 WAR. What is also impressive about Giolito is that he is averaging almost six innings per start in a league where the average starter lasts just five.
Backing up Giolito is a strong White Sox lineup. Currently, Chicago is averaging 4.9 runs per game, the fifth-best mark in the league. With Yasmani Grandal, Yermín Mercedes and José Abreu leading the way, offense is not a concern for the South Siders.
The only worry that the White Sox should have is with the injury to second baseman Nick Madrigal. Madrigal was placed on the 60-day injured list on Thursday due to a hamstring tear that will see him inactive from any baseball activity for at least the next six weeks.
Madrigal is quietly one of Chicago’s better players. He may lack power but has a .305 batting average and a 118 wRC+ this season. Additionally, he strikes out in 7.9% of his plate appearances. Even though he is not a household name, Chicago will be hurt by his absence.
Struggling Skubal Faces White Sox
Unlike Giolito, Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal has been a walking disaster since making his big-league debut last season. In 86 career innings, Skubal has a 4-11 record, 4.81 ERA, and a 4.68 xFIP. Additionally, he has a career WAR of 0.
Backing up Skubal is a Tigers bullpen that is nearly as bad as he has been. Currently Detroit relievers have an FIP of 4.93 which is the worst in the league. Against Chicago’s lineup, Detroit will have a tough time keeping runs off the scoreboard.
White Sox-Tigers Pick
The oddsmakers have largely priced this game correctly with White Sox appropriately set as heavy favorites. The total was opened at eight runs, which was too low and has since moved to a more appropriate 8.5 runs.
However, if you look more closely there is value on betting on the White Sox to score over 4.5 runs at -115. When I simulated tonight’s game 10,000 times in my model, Chicago scored more than 4.5 runs in 56.2% of my simulations. Based on Detroit’s lackluster pitching and Chicago’s lineup, the White Sox should go over their team total. I would bet it up to -120.
Pick: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -115 (play to -120)