Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Santiago Ponzinibbio.
After a week off, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas with a massive 14-fight card headlined by a heavyweight matchup between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai.
So, where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew is looking at three fights in particular and sees a few bets in those matchups with value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
You can also check out the moneyline and prop projections for every fight via Sean Zerillo’s betting model.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Mason Jones vs. Alan Patrick
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Jones had one of the more impressive debut losses that I’ve witnessed in his Fight of the Night with Mike Davis in January.
Davis won by unanimous decision (29-28), but seven of the 19 media scorecards and most fans (49%) scored the bout 29-28 for Jones. However, four media members and 8.3% of fans gave all three rounds to the American.
Jones won the significant striking battle (132-111) but allowed three takedowns (on nine attempts) which ultimately lost him the fight and could remain a hole in his game, long term. However, the Welshman didn’t stay on his back for long (allowed 50 seconds of control time) and showed solid scrambling, which is an encouraging sign for Saturday’s matchup.
Alan Patrick (3.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, 38% accuracy) should be able to secure a couple of takedowns early but could be in immediate trouble if he cannot keep Jones on his back. The Brazilian hasn’t won a fight in more than three years and is declining athletically in his late thirties. In addition, Patrick doesn’t throw combinations (1.79 strikes landed per minute) on the feet and figures to get overwhelmed by Jones’ volume boxing attack in space.
If Patrick can consistently drag Jones to the mat, he has a path to victory with control time, and he does carry more power in his strikes since he throws with reckless abandon.
However, that recklessness will likely be his downfall here, but it’s still not the type of matchup where I want to lay substantial juice on a favorite. That said, if Jones is winning enough minutes to take a one-sided decision and justify his price, it’s hard not to envision a volume-based stoppage, particularly in the second or third round.
I projected Jones’ odds to win inside the distance at -120 (projected 78% to win outright, with 70% of his win condition by finish), and I would bet that prop up to -107 at a three percent edge.
The Bet: Jones by KO/TKO, DQ, Submission (+120)
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Erich Richter: Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi
Contributor at The Action Network
This should be a very competitive fight between two totally different stylistic fighters. Boser is your classic heavyweight knockout artist, and Latifi is a former Swedish national team wrestler.
Latifi has trained with Daniel Cormier in the past, and his wrestling credentials are excellent. Boser has never been taken down in the UFC, so this will be a different kind of test. Boser has only had to defend two takedowns in his UFC career because so many of his past opponents are strikers.
I had to really dig into Boser’s past to find a recent grappling encounter for him. Below is a video — albeit from 2017 — where Boser has actually grappled.
Some of my favorite UFC bets are the most boring ones to watch.
Fighters that can’t stop the takedown are missing a massive part in their game. It is entirely possible that Boser has dramatically improved his wrestling. However, Latifi is one of the best wrestlers in the division. His ability to get double underhooks and threaten outside trips will be difficult for Boser to defend if he cannot land a knockout early.
Boser will have to defend several takedowns in this fight as the fight pushes past the first round. This could be a very good live bet spot too.
Latifi is an underdog in this fight at +155 on PointsBet. His moneyline is a fine bet here, but I see particular value in his decision prop. He is currently +380 to win by decision on, which I see as his most likely method of victory.
Latifi has not knocked out an opponent since 2016. Boser has not been submitted in his entire career, which is why Latifi’s submission prop is +1100. That I think is too high, sportsbooks are miscalculating Latifi’s method of victory props.
The Pick: Latifi by decision (+380)
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Billy Ward: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza
Contributor at The Action Network
Miguel Baeza steps into the octagon for the fourth time against veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio. Baeza is 10-0 (3-0 UFC) with all of his UFC wins coming inside the distance (and all in the second round, although this seems more like a coincidence than anything worth investigating.)
Ponzinibbio is a 12-fight UFC veteran, coming off of his first loss since 2015 at the hands of Jingliang Li, a fight that saw Ponzinibbio as a -335 favorite entering the fight.
This is a very significant step up in competition for the surging Baeza. Ponzinibbio is currently topology’s 14th-ranked Welterweight, even after his loss, and Baeza’s past UFC opponents are currently ranked 59th, 51st and out of the top 100 (from most recent to oldest.)
Ponzinibbio, still just 34 despite his lengthy UFC experience, is the more active striker. He attempts an average of just over 48 significant strikes per round, compared to 34 for Baeza. Neither man shows much interest in takedowns — both averaging less than half an attempt per round with below average success rates — which leads me to believe the fight will play out on the feet.
Both guys bring a wealth of power, with Santiago racking up 17 of his 27 pro wins by KO/TKO, and Baeza going seven-of-10. However, both guys are also highly durable, with Ponzinibbio only having been finished twice in his 13-year career, and Baeza being undefeated.
Ultimately, I like the veteran in this one. I don’t think he’s at the point of having lost a step yet, and his experience against dangerous competition should help him avoid the knockout. A lot of young fighters like Baeza tend to panic when they hit somebody with their best shot, and the guy is still standing in front of them. Look for this to happen here, with Baeza unloading early, and Ponzinibbio weathering the storm and outlasting him.
I also think Ponzinibbio’s higher activity rate will play better to the judges if they get involved, even if Baeza lands the better shots. With “The Argentinian Dagger” having more paths to victory and being a slight underdog (+108 on FanDuel), he’s the pick here.
Bonus: Look to bet Santiago live after Round 1. I expect Baeza to come out firing early so the live line would move even farther if Baeza has a strong opening round.
The Pick: Ponzinibbio ML (+108)
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