Brett Carlsen/Getty Images. Pictured: Eagles TE Zach Ertz
NFL Prop Bets
| Pick | Bet Now |
| Zach Ertz Over 33.5 Rec Yards | DraftKings |
The Eagles ruled out Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and Richard Rodgers for Sunday night. It’s pretty clear they have little incentive to win — in fact, a loss could result in them moving up the 2021 NFL Draft board with the third pick.
Motivation can play a huge factor in Week 17 props, and this could be Zach Ertz’s last game as an Eagle, so he should be highly motivated to have a good game. With Goedert and Rodgers both out, I’m projecting Ertz to run a route on 85-90% of the pass plays, which should be enough to haul in 4-5 catches.
My projections are likely underestimating Ertz’s potential on Sunday night, so I’d be willing to bet this all the way up to 39.5 yards, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:
| Rec Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 34.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 35.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 36.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 37.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 38.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 39.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 40.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Bet at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus |