Mets vs. Padres Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (+100 / -120)|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday afternoon via PointsBet.|
In an ironic twist, the San Diego Padres are gearing up to face a team that looks a whole lot like they did a couple weeks ago.
The New York Mets have had nearly their entire lineup out over the past couple of weeks, but have won ball games with their Triple-A lineup (and some castoffs from other teams) playing small ball.
It hasn’t translated to a whole lot of success early on in this series, but could the Mets grab a split against a familiar foe in Sunday’s showdown? Let’s see if the price is right.
New York Mets
The Mets’ lineups these days are looking grim, yet they’ve gone 7-3 over their last 10 games. Billy McKinney wasn’t even on this team a couple weeks ago, having been designated for assignment by the Brewers, and now he’s hitting leadoff.
The secret? Well, the Mets have made contact at a 75.9% clip over the past week for starters. They’re also striking out at an below-average rate, as in a good rate. They’re hitting .265 with a 40.6% hard-hit rate, so simply put they’re just socking the baseball at the moment. James McCann has turned into one of their best hitters, and even despite his absence Saturday, the Mets still won.
It’s time we talk about Marcus Stroman, who’s had himself a spectacularly weird season. He’s been hot and cold, and that dominant form we saw upon his arrival to the Mets has wavered ever so slightly, reflecting some of his late Blue Jays seasons at times.
Still, on the whole, he’s been effective. He’s had a bout with hard contact, but his strikeout and walk rates are all up, albeit he could still be punching out more batters. He’s profiling almost identically to last season with his ground ball rates, but his homer to fly ball ratio is up ever so slightly.
Stroman he has been burned just a bit by some barrels and homers, but overall he’s the same as he was last year.
San Diego Padres
On the other hand, the Padres have been pretty average over the last couple weeks and their 70 wRC+ over the last week actually reflects how much they’ve struggled at the plate. It’s almost as if they were better off when they had their backups in there a couple of weeks ago, when guys like Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Eric Hosmer were on the COVID-19 list.
Chris Paddack will be the pitcher, and he’s a guy the Padres haven’t really won behind all that much over the years with a 15-16 record and a 2-4 mark this season. Of course, the win isn’t worth a whole lot these days, but he’s certainly deserved that record with the way he’s pitched.
Paddack has seen a steady decline in his strikeout numbers from his rookie year, when he was pretty brilliant with a 3.33 ERA, and he really just hasn’t been the same ever since that hot start from April to June.
One of the starts that was the beginning of his decline was against the Mets in late July, when he was serenaded by the Citi Field crowd. Paddack and the Mets have a little feud going dating back to 2019, when Paddack and Pete Alonso were duking it out for Rookie of the Year honors. That will certainly be in Paddack’s head here, but pitching angrily didn’t exactly help him the last time these sides met.
With both pitchers having up and down years, I’m going to have to side with the hotter offense at the moment, which surprisingly belongs to the Mets. Stroman’s got some pretty good numbers against the current Padres, and in general has found his stride lately with three quality starts in a row.
He should be up to the task of taking on a lineup that’s failed to put together good at-bats this week and I can’t help but love this value given the even nature of the teams.
Pick: Mets ML (+140)