Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+950|
|Manchester City Odds||-315|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-143 / +115)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET|
|Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Manchester City continues their quest for the Premier League title on Saturday morning when they head to Selhurst Park to battle Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace’s season is almost a mirror image of last year. The Eagles are in 13th place and have all but secured safety for next season. They’ve been struggling lately, with only one win in their last seven matches. Additionally, they’ve struggled against the top teams in the table, going 1-6-8 vs. the top eight in the Premier League.
It seems to be only a matter of time before Manchester City recapture the Premier League title. They have a 10-point lead over Manchester United with only five matches left in the season, so City only need six points to capture the title.
Manchester City are in a sandwich spot with the second leg of the Champions League semifinals taking place on Tuesday. However, I think Pep Guardiola will be motivated to win the Premier League title sooner rather than later and will see this as a perfect opportunity to take three points from a weaker opponent.
The Eagles have been underwhelming all season long and likely won’t be that motivated for this match since they are safe from relegation and out of the race for a Europa League spot.
Crystal Palace may be in 13th place, but they’re 18th in expected goal differential at -27.8. The reason for that is because their attack, which is dead last in expected goals for, averaging only 0.86 xG per match. It’s been really bad as of late, as Palace have only created a total of 5.82 xG over their last 10 matches. That won’t bode well against the best defense in the Premier League.
Crystal Palace’s issues aren’t solely reserved for their offense over the past few months, as their defense is allowing 1.89 xG per match since Feb. 8. So, I have a hard time seeing how they’re going to slow down City’s high-powered offense, even if they play a few backups.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
What will be very interesting to see in this match is what type of lineup Manchester City go with. I think we will see a lot of the players we saw this past Wednesday against PSG since Guardiola hasn’t gone for wholesale changes in the past, instead opting to maintain the team’s continuity.
Whether it’s the regular starters or some of the backups in the lineup, let’s not get things twisted because Manchester City is an incredibly deep team and will still have loads more talent than Crystal Palace on the field. Over the past two months, the Cityzens are destroying their opponents in the Premier League, averaging 2.08 xGF per match while only allowing 0.96 xG per match. I don’t expect their form to dip too much in this match against a weak Palace side.
Manchester City has won their last 10 away matches in the Premier League, outscoring opponents 26-3 in the process. It’s difficult seeing Palace end that stretch of dominance.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Despite being between critical Champions League matches, I think Manchester City are going to cruise at Selhurst Park against a struggling Crystal Palace side. The Cityzens dominated Crystal Palace 4-0 in the first meeting and held the Eagles to only 0.05 xG.
Since I have Manchester City’s spread projected at -1.79, I think there is some value on their spread of -1.5 at +100.
Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (+100)