Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Eriksen.
Group B: Denmark vs. Finland Odds
| Denmark Odds | -240 |
| Finland Odds | +750 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+138 / -170) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Group B kicks off on Saturday with a Scandinavian clash between who many believe to be the dark horse in the tournament in Denmark hosting Finland.
Denmark have quickly become the trendy sleeper for the Euros after an amazing performance in World Cup qualifying in late March. The Danes beat Israel, Moldova and Austria by a combined score of 14-0 and quickly moved from 80/1 to 25/1 to win the Euros. Denmark have a ton of talent on their roster and are poised to dethrone Belgium atop the group to give them a favorable draw in the knockout stage, but they need to take care of business against Finland in their opener if they are going to win Group B.
Finland are playing in their first major international tournament in the country’s history after finishing second in their qualifying group with Italy, but it’s going to be a major uphill climb. They’ll have a major task ahead of them in their first match trying to shut down a potent Danish attack.
Denmark Have Been On Impressive Three-Year Run
You could make the argument that nobody in this tournament has been more impressive over the past three years. Denmark went unbeaten in the 2018 World Cup, Euro qualifying and World Cup qualifying. Over Euro and World Cup qualifying, the Danes averaged 2.30 xG per match, while only allowing 0.75 xG per match, which is one of the best margins coming into this tournament.
Denmark have a ton of talent in all three phases, but specifically, in their midfield and in attack, with the likes of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Christian Eriksen, Yuusuf Poulson and Kasper Dolberg who should be able to thrash Finland’s defense, which is one of the worst in this tournament.
Denmark usually play out of a 4-3-3, which provides plenty of options going forward, and it allows teams to combine two factors: a three-man central midfield — which can hold possession via passing triangles — and three strikers, who can press high up the field. With Hojbjerg and Thomas Delany playing in a more defensive midfield role, it allows Eriksen to push forward in attack and supply the three forwards. The Danes should be able to dismantle the Finnish back line out this formation.
Finland May Be Outmatched
Finland were able to finish second in their qualifying group behind Italy to secure their first-ever appearance at the Euros. However, it’s really hard to make a case for this Finnish team that lacks the talent to compete with all three teams in this group.
Their defense was terrible during their two World Cup qualifying matches against Bosnia and Ukraine, allowing a total of 4.04 expected goals, but their offense was actually pretty good during Euro qualifying; they averaged 1.87 xG per match and actually put 1.57 xG in their second match against Italy. They have a pretty good striker in Teemu Pukki, the main forward for Norwich who recently just got promoted to the Premier League.
Finland matches throughout Euro and World Cup qualifying were incredibly high scoring with 3.34 total xG created on average. If Finland goes down a goal in this match, I expect the match to open wide up.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I think Denmark are going to torch the Finland back line in this match given the amount of talent they have going forward in attack. Finland’s style of play should also lend itself to a ton of chances at both ends of the pitch, especially if Denmark score first.
Since I have 2.55 goals projected for this match, I think there is some good value on Over 2.5 goals at +138 (FanDuel).
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+138)
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