Joe Scarnici/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson
We’ve been waiting all year for Sunday night, so let’s get wild and close our first NFL Sunday in eight months with a Same Game Parlay. If you’re unfamiliar, Same Game Parlays are new markets offered by PointsBet, and they let you create multiple bets tied together around the same game, as opposed to parlays on multiple different games.
PointsBet is offering a risk-free bet up to $20 for Sunday Night Football as the Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears. Parlays are tough to hit, so let’s play aggressive and make it worth our while.
Too many people build SGPs backwards, looking for a bunch of bets they like and cobbling them all together and then imagining the sort of game they need to root for. We’re doing the opposite — we’ll look at the game first and decide on the most likely game script, then check which lines make the most sense.
So how will the game play out on Sunday night?
I wrote about how this game feels like a potential trap. But range of outcomes isn’t relevant here — if we miss any part of our parlay, we lose it all anyway, so let’s just focus on the most likely outcome and go all-in.
And the most likely outcome is a dominant Rams win against an outmatched Bears offense. Chicago’s offensive line is in horrible shape, and that’s a huge problem against three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Aaron Donald. Andy Dalton will be under pressure all game, and it’s not like he’s inspired much confidence this preseason. He might only even have the job because Chicago’s coaches aren’t confident the line can keep Justin Fields safe.
This could be ugly for the Bears, and the one great weapon they do have in Allen Robinson should be negated by the league’s finest corner, Jalen Ramsey. How exactly are the Bears supposed to score if ARob can’t get open and Dalton is under pressure all game?
The Rams may not put up a huge number either. Chicago’s defense is solid, and LA’s first-string offense didn’t play at all this preseason. If the Bears attack is as inept as we suspect, Sean McVay can ease Matthew Stafford into his new role and get the easy win. Stafford has more wins against Chicago (11) than any other opponent, and he’s never had this much help with blocking, receiving, or schematically under McVay. Chicago’s corners are suspect with Kyle Fuller gone, so the Rams should be able to move the ball.
This is a nightmare spot for Chicago. It feels like a buzz-saw blowout folks will be talking about Monday morning — when will the Bears finally start Justin Fields, and are the Rams a real Super Bowl contender now?
NFL Same Game Parlay: Rams-Bears
Okay, so if that’s our game script, here’s a Same Game Parlay that fits our most likely outcome with +774 odds:
- Rams -7.5 (-125)
- Rams lead halftime / full-time (-165)
- Bears team under 18.5 (-110)
- Race to 30, neither team (-140)
- Game alt under 43.5 (+125)
- Stafford 200+ yards (-700)
We’re playing the Rams to win fairly comfortably against a Bears team that doesn’t score much, and we’re counting on LA to tap out under 30 itself. The Rams take an early lead and win a comfortable, possibly boring game. And if the Bears are under 19 and the Rams are under 30, we may as well play a more aggressive alternate under.
As for Stafford? That may feel like a strange addition, but we’re always looking to maximize our profit, and that measly -700 bet with implied odds of 87.5% increases our potential profit by over 31%, from +588 to +774. Stafford has thrown for at least 200 yards in 19 of 20 games against the Bears, and even in a lower scoring game, the Rams will move the ball some.
That’s our Sunday Night Football SGP! Let’s hope the Rams win a boring, low-scoring game and put us all to sleep, padding our wallets in the process. Your risk-free $20 wager at PointsBet pays out $174.80 if this hits!