NFL Odds: Colts vs. Steelers

Colts Odds	+1 [BET NOW]
Steelers Odds	-1 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	42.5 [BET NOW]
Time	1 p.m. ET
TV	CBS
Odds as of Saturday night and via BetMGM, where you can bet $1 on the Colts or Steelers moneyline to win $100 if a touchdown is scored.

Perhaps the biggest game of Sunday’s NFL slate takes place in Pittsburgh when the Steelers battle the Indianapolis Colts.

After starting the season 11-0, the Steelers have since fallen on hard times, losing three straight, including a loss to the Bengals on Monday night.

The offense has been struggling with consistency as of late and things won’t get any easier against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Pittsburgh looked like it had the AFC North all but locked up. Now it looks to be in jeopardy with two weeks left in the season.

This game is vitally important to the Colts and their playoff seed. If they win, they would be in the driver’s seat to win the AFC South. If they lose, they could drop all the way down to the seventh and final seed.

They’ll need their elite defense to show up if they are going to shut down all of Pittsburgh’s weapons.

Indianapolis Colts

Offense

Anyone who has watched Philip Rivers this season knows he’s declining fast at age 39 — he’s ranked in the bottom half in passer rating and yards per attempt.

That wouldn’t be a big issue if the Colts had a solid running game behind him, but they don’t. Indianapolis is 29th in rushing success and is running the ball for a measly 4.0 yards per carry.

With that being said, the Colts have improved on offense during their three-game winning streak, as they are gaining 6.6 yards per play. However, their performances should be taken with a grain of salt as they played the Raiders and the Texans twice, which are two below-average defenses.

The Colts have been fortunate this season since they haven’t had to face too many tough defenses. When they faced off against Chicago and Baltimore, they only averaged a measly 4.72 yards per play, so going up against a defense like Pittsburgh’s is going to be a challenge for the Colts.

Defense

The strength of this Colts defense is in their front seven. They are one of the best teams in the AFC against the run, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry.

In fact, they are the sixth-ranked team in the NFL in explosive rushing allowed, so this front seven allows very few big plays. That will come in handy against Pittsburgh, who has one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL.

The Colts have had some issues in the secondary this season, especially giving up big plays in the passing game. Indianapolis allows 7.0 yards per attempt and is 27th in passing explosiveness allowed.

That is going to be an issue against Pittsburgh, given all of the weapons they have at the wide receiver position.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Pascal, Philip Rivers

Pittsburgh Steelers

Offense

To say the Steelers offense is struggling at the moment would be an understatement.

Over their last three games, they are gaining a measly 4.3 yards per play and only 2.9 yards per rush attempt. However, issues in the run game are nothing new to the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the worst rushing offense in the NFL, ranking 31st in rushing success and 30th in rushing explosiveness, per Sharp Football Stats.

That’s going to be a problem against Indianapolis’ stout rushing defense.

Ben Roethlisberger has really struggled with efficiency this year and is only averaging 6.2 yards per attempt, which is by far the lowest average of his career.

The good news is that Big Ben has so many weapons to throw to right now and he’ll be facing a below-average secondary. If the Steelers are going to win this game, their passing game is going to have to be on point.

Defense

The main reason the Steelers started out 11-0 is because of their defense. Pittsburgh ranks second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at only 4.8 and has allowed only 4.5 over their three-game losing streak.

Pittsburgh’s defense is led by its secondary. The Steelers are the No. 1 team in the NFL is defensive passing success (per Sharp Football Stats) and are only allowing 6.5 yards per attempt.

Their secondary has also been opportunistic, as they’ve already picked off opposing quarterbacks 17 times this year.

Pittsburgh’s front seven has also been wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks, and they lead the league in sacks, with 47 already on the season. They should have no trouble against 39-year-old Rivers on Sunday.

Pittsburgh’s run defense has also been stellar this season, allowing only 4.1 yards per carry and 3.4 over the losing streak, so it’s clearly not the defense’s fault.

With Indianapolis not having a strong run game, I think the Colts are going to struggle to move the ball on Sunday.

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Colts-Steelers Pick

In my opinion, this line is an overreaction to Pittsburgh’s recent losing streak. The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and if their offense can just score 20 points, they should be able to win this game.

I have Pittsburgh projected as about a 4.5-point favorite, so I see value on the Steelers to -2.

Pick: Steelers -1 (to -2)

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