Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young #11 and John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks; Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
Friday night’s NBA Playoffs slate features a double-header of Game 3 matchups: 76ers vs. Hawks and Suns vs. Nuggets.
The Sixers are expected to have Joel Embiid in the lineup as he continues to play through his knee injury. The Nuggets are expected to have Michael Porter Jr. despite his recent back issues.
In both games, are crew is finding value across the board and they are betting the spread in the early game, plus on prop and moneyline in the late matchup.
Take a look at their analysis and picks for tonight’s action below.
NBA Odds & Picks
| Click on a pick to skip ahead | |
| 76ers vs. Hawks Spread | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| 76ers vs. Hawks Spread | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Suns vs. Nuggets Prop | 10 p.m. ET |
| Suns vs. Nuggets Moneyline | 10 p.m. ET |
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
| Pick | 76ers -1 |
| Book | <!–PointsBet–>PointsBet |
| Tipoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Raheem Palmer: Since the second half of Game 1, the Atlanta Hawks have never really hit the same level. After scoring 74 points on 1.37 points per possession in the first half of Game 1, the Sixers defense has stifled this offensive attack. In the second half of Game 1, the Hawks scored just one point per possession and had a -32.1 Net Rating.
They followed that up in Game 2 by scoring just 104.1 points per 100 possessions. While conventional wisdom says the Hawks should play better at home, I’m not buying that as it appears the 76ers have figured out a way to defend them.
What hasn’t changed throughout this series is that the Hawks can’t stop Joel Embiid who is averaging 39.5 points, 11 rebounds and 3.0 assists in addition to getting to the line 31 times in just two games. The Hawks will also be without De’Andre Hunter for the rest of the NBA playoffs, which hurts them when attempting to defend Tobias Harris.
Since the 76ers stopped turning the ball over as much as they did in the first half of Game 1, the Hawks haven’t been able to stop this team as they have a 120.2 Offensive Rating for the series.
Overall I think this number is short with my model making the 76ers 2.5-point road favorites. I’ll lay the point on the road and look for the 76ers to take a 2-1 lead.
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
| Pick | 76ers -1 |
| Book | PointsBet |
| Tipoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Brandon Anderson: A few games into the first round, when it started to look like this was the likely matchup to come, I had my eye on the Hawks as a sleeper who could push the 76ers a little more than everyone might initially expect. I still figured Philly would win the series, but maybe in six or even seven games.
Then Joel Embiid got hurt, and I got bolder. I picked the Hawks to win the series outright, and in six games, largely because I felt like the Hawks were the better team with a limited or missing Embiid.
Atlanta looked the part in Game 1. Trae Young continues to be an absolute menace, slicing apart this very good Philly defense with his passing even when the shots aren’t falling, and the Sixers haven’t had enough perimeter defense for him, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Kevin Huerter.
But Philadelphia responded with a huge start to Game 2, led most of the way, and now I’m re-evaluating the series again, because again things have changed.
Embiid sure doesn’t look hurt. He’s still showing up as questionable each night but was an absolute monster in the first two games, and it’s clear Atlanta has no way to slow him down. With two days off before this game tonight, it’s probably as healthy as Embiid is going to be for the rest of this series.
But there was another less heralded injury announcement that also looms large. Talented young Hawks wing De’Andre Hunter is out for the season now, leaving Atlanta short on the wing, and Solomon Hill has been pretty miserable in his place.
This is a great spot for Philadelphia. Atlanta’s crowd will be rocking and the Hawks should make a push early, so you can always wait a bit and try to get a better moneyline price on Philly if there’s an early hole, but I do like the Sixers to win this game, and right now, I like them to win the series.
Until we see proof that that injury is actually getting in Embiid’s way, these two injury factors have swung the series heavily in Philly’s favor, and that should play out most tonight with the extra day of rest.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
| Pick | Jae Crowder Over 2.5 3-Pointers |
| Book | William Hill |
| Tipoff | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Joe Dellera: Jae Crowder is the quintessential 16-game player. He’s a physical menace on defense and seems to always hit dagger 3s. Part of his appeal is he can score efficiently on limited shot attempts.
Over the course of the regular season he took 8.2 shots per game, but 6.3 of those were from 3-point range; during the postseason, he’s taking 9.4 shots with 7.4 of those coming from 3-point range.
The Nuggets have struggled to defend the 3 ball, and have allowed to shoot 42.2% from 3 point range against them during the playoffs, per Cleaning the Glass.
The shots are there, and he’s made at leas three 3-pointers in his last five games. Crowder shot 38.9% from 3-point range this season, and I’ll back him to continue his hot shooting against this Denver defense.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
| Pick | Suns ML (+105) |
| Book | PointsBet |
| Tipoff | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Kenny Ducey: When the Nuggets faced any sort of adversity due to their lethargic defense in the first round, the Trail Blazers‘ defense was there to let them right back in the game. Well, they haven’t been afforded the same helping hand in this series and sure won’t be provided any sort of assistance in Game 3.
These aren’t the Blazers, they’re the Suns — one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. Denver has relied on its shooting, hitting 38.8% of 3-pointers, which ranks fifth in the postseason. So far in this series, they’ve been limited to 33.7%.
In the first two games, we saw a Denver offense that was simply out of ideas, hoping Nikola Jokic’s brilliance on low-percentage shots would shine through. Though I believe the Nuggets will have a bit more success on offense playing at home, where they had some of their best shooting nights, that should only last so long before the Suns assert themselves once again and take a commanding 3-0 lead. The Suns have a clear edge on both ends of the floor.
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