Photo by Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: The Toronto Raptors lay out t-shirts for Christmas
When it comes to the sports calendar, Christmas Day is for the NBA.
Sure, this year’s Christmas slate also includes Vikings vs. Saints, Marshall vs. Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl and a handful of solid college basketball matchups, but let’s not forget that it’s professional hoops that traditionally anchors the day.
With this in mind, let’s take advantage of our NBA PRO Report, which pinpoints five key betting value indicators, to determine Christmas’ smartest NBA wagers.
Pelicans vs. Heat Odds
| Pelicans Odds | +4.5 |
| Heat Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 224.5 |
| Time/Channel | 12 p.m. ET, ESPN |
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Pelicans vs. Heat Picks
Sharp Action
Based on line movement and our sharp action indicators, the Pelicans vs. Heat over/under has been the favorite Christmas Day NBA bet among professionals.
Sharps have steamed this under three times according to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, so it’s not at all surprising to see this number plummet from an opener of 229 to 224.5 (click here for the latest NBA odds).
PRO Systems
Our Unders on Good Home Over Team PRO System has a 530-400-13 (57%) record since 2005 by pinpointing inflated NBA totals and buying back those unders.
Pelicans vs. Heat fits this system and provides some context regarding why sharps have been so bullish on this under.
PRO Report Pick: Under 224.5
Clippers vs. Nuggets Odds
| Clippers Odds | -2.5 |
| Nuggets Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 224 |
| Time/Channel | 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN |
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Clippers vs. Nuggets Picks
Sharp Action
While the wiseguys have taken a strong position on the under in the first Christmas Day game, sharps are expecting a higher-scoring Friday finale.
Bet Signals are reporting a Steam Move on Over 223, marking a specific in stance in which market-moving money came in on that side of the total.
This data helps explain why the Clippers vs. Nuggets total has increased two points from its opener of 222.
Big Money
Seventy-five percent of bets are on the over, showing that recreational bettors also like that wager.
In addition, 90% of the money has fallen on the over, meaning that sportsbooks will certainly be rooting for a low-scoring matchup.
PRO Systems
In fact, this bets-vs.-dollars discrepancy is so large that it qualifies for our Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs PRO System, which is 349-277-7 (56%) since 2016.
PRO Report Pick: Over 224
