For the first time in two years, the NASCAR Cup Series will return to Sonoma Raceway.
In general, there has been more road course racing recently, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic the series skipped this circuit during the 2020 season.
The usual suspects, like Chase Elliott (+225) and Martin Truex (+400), are the favorites to win today’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 (4 p.m. ET, FS1) according to the latest NASCAR at Sonoma odds, and I’m likely passing on outrights altogether.
However, there is one prop bet that I like enough enough to take for Sunday’s race.
Let’s take a look.
NASCAR at Sonoma Betting Pick
*Odds as of Sunday at 8:30 a.m. ET
Kevin Harvick (+400) as Top Ford
Harvick has had an underwhelming season so far by his standards, however, crew chief Rodney Childers has started to find more speed in the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Ford, especially compared to his three teammates.
And while Harvick doesn’t necessarily come to mind as a favorite on road-course layouts, Sonoma has been a great track for him in recent years.
Over the past three Cup Series races at this circuit, Kevin has the best average finish and the second-best driver rating, and perhaps more importantly, he also has led the second-most laps while running the second-most fast laps.
Harvick will also have the advantage of the best starting position (eighth) among the Fords.
This all adds up for an appetizing bet to back the No. 4 as the top Ford finisher at +400 odds.