Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Odds

Aston Villa Odds	+390 [BET NOW]
Chelsea Odds	-155 [BET NOW]
Over/Under	3.5 (+138/-175) [BET NOW]
Time	Monday, 12:30 p.m. ET
TV	NBC Sports Network
Odds as of Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Aston Villa has been one of the biggest surprises of the Premier League thus far, outpacing expectations and sitting in seventh place with two games in hand on most of its competition in the table.

It’ll visit Stamford Bridge on Monday afternoon to take on Chelsea, which lost to Arsenal on Boxing Day.

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Aston Villa

I’ve probably bet on this Aston Villa team more than any other in the Premier League thus far.

The Villans have been consistently undervalued in the market because of their name, despite absolutely dominating their opponents for weeks now.

A dominant performance that ended in a draw with Burnley has been followed up with two more beatdowns, one of West Brom and another of Crystal Palace.

Jack Grealish is playing like the best creative midfielder in the Premier League, posting better numbers than even Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne this season. Expected goals have foretold this recent period of dominance, and their good young attackers are only trending upward. 

The Villans rank first in xG difference per 90 in the entire league, although they have not yet played most of the league’s better teams — including United, City, Chelsea, Spurs and Everton.

They won’t keep dominating at the level they have, but they are legitimate contenders for a Champions League spot.

Chelsea

The beauty of betting this sport is when games like Chelsea’s 3-1 loss to Arsenal happen.

The Blues were flat. Their midfield looked tired and a step slow the entire match. They were unprepared for the ball pressure that Arsenal applied higher up the pitch.

But let’s not overstate what really happened in the Boxing Day defeat. Chelsea allowed a soft penalty, a 30-yard free kick, and an accidental cross from an Arsenal attacker that floated into the net. Chelsea’s defense is still quite good, as it ranks fourth in xG allowed this season. Three fluke goals allowed doesn’t change that.

There have been plenty of people looking to dismiss the Blues because they haven’t had a notable performance and result against one of the PL’s top teams. But their underlying numbers are perfectly fine, as they sit third in xG difference per 90.

I rate them as the Premier League’s third-best team, and even though Timo Werner is in a bad run of finishing and they don’t have Hakim Ziyech, they still created 2.3 xG against a solid Arsenal defense. 

Betting Analysis & Pick 

There are signs that the market is finally catching on to the quality of Aston Villa.

Chelsea was -190 on the look-ahead moneyline in this one and could be bought at a similar price right after its loss to Arsenal. The line has since crashed down to -155. That took all of the value out of this match for me in backing Aston Villa here. But if the line shoots back up, Villa is worth a look at +150 or better to get a point. 

As for the total, if it reaches 3.25, which I anticipate it well given the offensive firepower both teams have, I’ll be hopping in on the under, as I project just 2.87 goals.

Everyone will talk about the attacking talent on the pitch, but it’s the defenses that are underrated here, and Chelsea manager Frank Lampard will make changes to show respect to Villa’s attack.

Both teams also wanted an extra day to prepare for this match, citing tired legs. It could slow the pace of the game down, which would help the under. 

Pick: Aston Villa +0.5 (+150 or better) | Under 3.25 (-115 or better).

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