After taking a good, long look at the pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s two strikeout totals I’m targeting on Wednesday.
Additionally, there’s a position player prop that I believe might provide some value while adding an extra sweat.
Our tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Giants at Dodgers||Dodgers -155|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
Logan Webb is one of a multitude of Giants’ pitchers who are over-performing this season. The 24-year-old has made 11 starts in 2021, averaging almost 5 2/3 innings per start with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
Webb has kept almost all of his advanced stats down. His career-low average exit velocity (86.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (34.4%) have resulted in a 3.40 xERA and a 3.04 xFIP. Despite how excellent he’s been this season, there’s a chance we could expect some extra positive regression from him.
Most importantly, however, Webb has been averaging 5 2/3 innings per start while striking out close to 10 batters per nine – also a career high.
Webb’s road splits are questionable, and the L.A. offense is a powerhouse, but the Dodgers are so beat up right now that neither could matter. Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy are all listed on the injury report in some capacity, although it’s unclear exactly who will make the lineup and who will not.
Our Action Labs tool is projecting Webb at 5.6 strikeouts for Wednesday, so there’s lots of room to find value on the over 4.5 number, and you can still play it at plus money at BetMGM.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Madison Bumgarner Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
|Pirates at Diamondbacks||Diamondbacks -130|
|Time||3:40 p.m. ET|
MadBum has been up and down this season, but since his “fake” no-hitter on May 11, things have been mostly down for the former superstar.
Since that night, Bumgarner found himself on the injury list for a bit and thus has posted only five starts. He’s recorded a 5.90 ERA and allowed 29 hits in the same number of innings. The Diamondbacks have lost five consecutive Bumgarner starts, while he’s posted an 0-4 record during the stretch.
Bumgarner has also hit over 5.5 strikeouts just once since the no-hitter. The Pirates are not a good offense by any means, but they’re disciplined and have posted the eighth-lowest strikeout rate over the past 30 days.
It’s going to be tough for Bumgarner to rack up six Ks on Wednesday, and our Action Labs tool is projecting him at just 5.2 punchouts. I’ll be playing MadBum under 5.5 Ks at -135, but ideally I’d like to see it at -130 or better.
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Tim Anderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125) & Over 1.5 Hits (+130)
|Twins at White Sox||White Sox -150|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Anderson’s total bases is a great bet, but I’m going to split a unit on these two lines to provide some added value.
Michael Pineda, like the rest of the Twins pitching staff, has been below average. However, he was having a decent year until the regression train pulled into the Pineda station. On May 26, Pineda had a 2.62 ERA and a .99 WHIP, but he paired that with an average exit velocity over 90 mph and a hard-hit rate approaching 45%.
Now, over his past four starts, Pineda has allowed 15 runs on 29 hits in 16 2/3 innings, adding up to an 8.10 ERA and raising his season-long number to 4.11. He’s allowed a .387 BA and an OPS over 1.000 in those stars, while striking out only eight total batters.
He faces the White Sox for the third time this season, where traditionally lineups begin to figure out opposing pitchers. However, Anderson has always had Pineda’s number. Anderson’s 12-for-18 lifetime against Pineda with three doubles and three home runs.
While those are ridiculously high numbers, his batted ball statistics have still added up to a .410 xBA, a .737 xSLG and a .487 xwOBA. So, while I’d expect slight regression as Anderson and Pineda match up in the future, I’d still project Anderson to record a lot of hard-hit balls in those matchups.
If Anderson doesn’t cash this prop against Pineda, which is possible considering Pineda has pitched more than four innings just once since June started, he’ll get plenty of chances against a Twins bullpen that has posted a 5.22 xFIP since the All-Star break.
Feel free to split a unit on these two, bet either prop separately or put a unit on both. All of these lines provide value in one way or another.