Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer.
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing for Sunday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
JT Brubaker — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Pirates vs. Mets | Mets -134 |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Wil Crowe’s strikeout prop came up just short last night, but I am going to back to a Buccos pitcher today. The Pirates are lowkey playing great baseball, winning seven of their last 10 games and have a ton of momentum.
The Mets rank just 23rd in the league in batting average this season and 24th in wOBA. They rank 20th in strikeout rate and lost Francisco Lindor last night.
After a terrific start to the season, finishing April with a 2.63 ERA, Brubaker has fallen off a bit raising his ERA up to 4.47. His strikeouts have still been there though and he is averaging 5.5 strikeouts per start. He has reached this number in 11 of his 16 starts, including his last game which came against the Mets when he fanned seven.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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Max Scherzer — Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Nationals vs. Padres | Nationals -110 |
| Time | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Max Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last decade. He is a three-time Cy Young Award winner and eight-time All-Star. Somehow, at age 36, he is still having one of the better seasons of his career.
After a down season last year, Mad Max has bounced back with a 2.66 ERA in 17 starts. He still has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the game with a 12.31 K/9, which ranks fourth in the league. His slider is still devastating, generating a 47.4 Whiff%.
In Scherzer’s last start before the break he was lit up for seven runs against these Padres, his worst outing of the season. So why am I backing him against them here? Because despite lasting just 3 2/3 innings and having his worst performance of the season, he still managed seven strikeouts in that shortened start. I expect him to bounce back with a better performance and last longer into this one.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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Chris Bassitt — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106)
| Athletics vs. Indians | Athletics -172 |
| Time | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Oakland ace Chris Bassitt earned his first All-Star selection after putting together a 10-2 record in the first half with a 3.28 ERA. The biggest area he has improved this season is his strikeout rate.
After just a 7.86 K/9 rate last season, he elevated it to a 9.00 this season. Bassitt is throwing his slider more than ever before, and it has a 43.8 Whiff% this year. His fastball is also terrific, allowing just a .184 batting average and a 39.3 K%.
In 19 starts, Bassitt has 118 strikeouts, good for 6.2 strikeouts per game. He has gone over this total in 13 of his 19 starts, and I expect him to be able to reach this again.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
