I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Sandy Alcantara — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
|Marlins vs. Pirates||Marlins -130|
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
The Marlins have a stable of young arms in their rotation, and Sandy Alcantara is one of them. After going 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA last season, Alcantara has been inconsistent this year, going 2-5 with a 3.68 ERA. His expected ERA however, is 2.92, implying some bad luck.
Alcantara has an 8.62 K/9 and throws four pitches at least 20% of the time to keep batters guessing. His changeup, fastball and slider all have a K% over 25%.
A lot of Alcantara’s numbers are skewed by one horrific start against the Dodgers when he allowed eight runs in just an inning. In 12 starts this season, Alcantara has gone over 5.5 strikeouts six times. He has lasted at least six innings in 10 of his 12 starts, and if he can do that against the Pirates on Sunday, I expect him to go over this total.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Dylan Cease — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|White Sox vs. Tigers||White Sox -200|
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
It has been an up and down year for Dylan Cease. He is 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA in 11 starts this season. He has had terrific outings, like allowing one hit while striking out 11 against Cincinnati on May 4, and disastrous starts, allowing six runs in three innings against Cleveland in his last time out.
Cease’s strikeout numbers are way up this season, and I’m not sure if that is sustainable for him. He currently has a 11.20 K/9 rate, after posting a 6.79 K/9 last season and a 9.99 K/9 the year before.
Detroit has been much better at the plate recently, and Cease has averaged just 4.9 innings per start this year. He would likely need to last at least seven innings to go over this total, which is something he has only done once all season.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Marcus Stroman — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Mets vs. Padres
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
Marcus Stroman is quietly having a really solid year for the Mets in his first full season in New York. Stroman is 4-4 with a 2.66 ERA, and teams are batting .229 against him.
His 7.24 K/9 this season is pretty much in line with his 7.36 career number, and he has averaged 4.7 K’s per start this season. The biggest reason to back Stroman is his ability to stay in the game. Stroman has averaged 5.8 innings per start this season, and has lasted at least six innings in eight of his 11 starts, and in five straight outings.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10