Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Packy Naughton
After taking a good, long look at Tuesday’s pitching matchups using The Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve found two strikeout totals on the MLB slate that provide value.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool grades every play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Erick Fedde Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
| Nationals vs. Marlins | Nationals (-115) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Marlins are going to strike out. And the Marlins are going to strike out a lot.
However, Fedde is a sinkerballer who pitches to contact. He’s striking out about eight batters per nine innings this season, but the 5.5 number is a tad inflated.
Fedde has hit over 5.5 strikeouts in just nine of his 24 starts this season, and in just four of his 11 starts last season. Both of those numbers are hovering around a 37% hit rate that should make this under line closer to -170.
Meanwhile, this is the third time that Fedde will be facing the Marlins this season, which is historically when hitters begin to figure out opposing pitchers.
The last time Fedde faced the Marlins at Nationals Park, he recorded just four strikeouts over 10 innings.
Today, the Action Labs Player Props tool has him pegged at 5.4 strikeouts, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections has him at 5.25. I like Fedde to stay under this number today, just like he has most of the season.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Packy Naughton Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| Angels vs. White Sox | Angels (+155) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
After snagging five strikeouts against the Padres in his last outing, I’m ready to back Packy Naughton one more time.
There isn’t a big sample size on Naughton, but he does show some high upside. He posted 9.45 K/9 in 12 rookie ball starts, and 8.42 K/9 over nine starts once he reached Triple-A.
However, I’m simply backing the projections with Packy today. Our Action Labs Player Props tool has him at a whopping 4.5 strikeouts, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim Projections has him recording 3.92 strikeouts.
Either or, this is the biggest edge you’re going to get in the MLB prop market today. Play the over 2.5 number and get ready to watch Naughton shine.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
