MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 2 Best Bets, Including Padres vs. Nationals & Brewers vs. Reds (Saturday, July 17)

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Woodruff.

The first Saturday post All-Star break has arrived, and it’s a busy day with 16 games on the MLB docket.

Our staff is focusing on a pair of contest, beginning with Padres vs Nationals at 7:05 p.m. ET, followed shortly after by Brewers vs. Reds.

See which angles they’re attacking the games from as baseball enters the back half of the schedule.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Padres vs. Nationals 7:05 p.m. ET
Brewers vs. Reds 7:10 p.m. ET

Padres vs. Nationals

Pick Over 9.5 (-110)
Book <!–DraftKings–>DraftKings
Pitchers Blake Snell vs. Patrick Corbin
First Pitch 7:05 p.m. ET

Sean Zerillo: This matchup is between two of my favorite pitchers to fade, at present, in Blake Snell (5.43 xERA) and Patrick Corbin (5.65 xERA).

Both pitchers have a ton of name-brand value after making it to the World Series — and pitching well — in the past two years. But their expected indicators have fallen dramatically in the time since, and I think both remain overrated in the betting markets.

I projected the weather-neutral total for this matchup at 10.1 runs, but there’s some added wind tonight in D.C. lending support to our play, with gusts blowing straight out to centerfield between 10-12 mph at game time.

Moreover, it’s been unbearably humid on the East Coast in the past few days, and you might have noticed the ridiculous number of runs scored around the big leagues on Friday night.

Bet the Over 9.5 here to -115, and play the F5 Over 5 up to -115, or take F5 Over 5.5 at +100 or better.


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Brewers vs. Reds

Pick Brewers First Five Innings (-130)
Book DraftKings
Pitchers Brandon Woodruff vs. Luis Castillo
First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET

Brad Cunningham: Brandon Woodruff has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season, posting a 2.74 xERA and 2.95 xFIP. He’s been unbelievable with his control because his K/9 rate is at 10.24 and his BB/9 rate is at 1.99.

He’s also been dominating with his fastball and curveball, as both are allowing a wOBA under .210 and have accounted for 98 of his 129 strikeouts this season. He’ll need to be on point with his fastball tonight because the Reds are one of the best right-handed and fastball-hitting teams in baseball.

Luis Castillo has taken a step back this season, as his xERA and xFIP are over four. He’s having some issues with his control because his BB/9 rate is all the way up at 3.94, which is the highest of his career.

His main issues, as far as his pitch arsenal is concerned, have come with his fastball and sinker, as both are allowing a wOBA over .340. That’s going to be a problem against this Brewers lineup because they have five guys in their lineup with a wOBA over .380 against sinkers and are the 11th best team in baseball against fastballs.

I have Woodruff and the Brewers projected at -158 for the first five innings, so I think there is some value on them at -130 and would play it up to -140.


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