Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
It’s a full slate in Major League Baseball with all 15 games set to take place under the lights this evening.
Our analysts have identified three games with recommended bets, including picks on Mariners-Tigers, Astros-Red Sox and Yankees-Twins. Here are our four best bets from Tuesday’s MLB slate.
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MLB Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins | 8:10 p.m. ET |
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
| Pick | Tigers -126 |
| Book | N/A |
| Pitchers | Marco Gonzales vs. Matthew Boyd |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
PRO Report: When it comes to interest from fans, tonight’s Mariners vs. Tigers matchup isn’t likely to move the needle much — but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth betting, either.
In fact, according to our PRO betting tools, this game is attracting plenty of interest from both sharp and expert bettors.
Detroit opened at -110 for tonight’s game against Seattle and wiseguys have pounded the Tigers’ moneyline since Monday afternoon. We’ve tracked four sharp action indicators on Detroit, so it’s very little surprise to see this number now up to a consensus of -126.
Sportsbooks are clearly heavy with Tigers money based on the line movement that we’ve seen so far, and our MLB public betting data concurs. Seventy-two percent of real dollars wagered have come in on the home favorites, confirming that oddsmakers have been forced to react to the one-sided betting action.
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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
| Pick | Astros -112 |
| Book | <!–PointsBet–>PointsBet |
| Pitchers | Framber Valdez vs. Martín Pérez |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
Sean Zerillo: Before his spring training injury, I had expected to both pick and wager upon Framber Valdez to win the 2021 AL Cy Young award. I’m incredibly high on the Astros’ lefty, and I cannot understate how significant his return — and effectiveness — is to Houston’s chances of contending this season.
Valdez had a breakout year (3.79 xERA, 2.94 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA) during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He only tossed 70 2/3 innings during the regular season, but Valdez added another 24 innings in a relatively dominant postseason (24 IP, 14 H, 5 ER, 10 BB, 26 K) run as he went 3-1 in four starts against the Twins, Athletics, and Rays (2x) and helped the Astros to within one game of the World Series.
After shaking off the rust over four innings against the Padres, Valdez looked fine-tuned against the Red Sox on June 2 (7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 10 K) and will try to beat the same opponent again, six days later. Likewise, Martín Pérez pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Astros in his last start, so there’s some very recent history present there, too.
However, Valdez (3.30 Model Weighted ERA) is more than a run better than Pérez (4.51 Model Weighted ERA) in my model, which aligns with their projected ERA ranges (3.37 to 3.67 for Valdez; 4.68 to 4.91 for Pérez) from public sources like ZIPS, Steamer, and THE BAT.
Moreover, the Astros have had the second-best offense against left-handed pitching this season (125 wRC+), while the Red Sox have been closer to league-average (103 wRC+). Houston has consistently had one of the best offenses against lefties during their current run of success, with several lefty killers like José Altuve (career 145 wRC+), Alex Bregman (169), and Yuli Gurriel (123) in their lineup.
I projected the Astros as a 59% favorite for the first five innings and as a 56.1% favorite for the whole game on Tuesday night. I would bet those lines up to -130 and -120, respectively.
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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
| Pick | Astros -112 |
| Book | bet365 |
| Pitchers | Framber Valdez vs. Martín Pérez |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
DJ James: When it comes to hitting left-handers, the White Sox are the standard-bearers, but the Houston Astros are right behind them. Yes, Martín Pérez has been incredibly effective for the Boston Red Sox this year, but in his last start, Framber Valdez held the Red Sox to only five hits in seven innings.
Herein lies the difference.
Simply put, the Astros crush lefties, and the Red Sox are league average against lefties. The 16.7% K rate for the Astros jumps off the page when compared to 20.7% for the Red Sox, even if that Red Sox mark is still below league average.
Plenty of the bullpen has landed on the injured list for Houston, and this is definitely where Boston has a leg up on the competition. However, with Valdez being able to go deep into games, he definitely negates their largest weakness. As long as they can keep it to one or two pitchers between Valdez and Ryan Pressly, they are in great shape.
The Houston lineup should jump on Pérez, too. Yes, he, too, limited Houston to very few hits, but expect some positive regression for the Astros, given the trajectory of the rest of their season facing southpaws.
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New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
| Pick | Twins First Five Innings -105 |
| Book | <!–BetMGM–>BetMGM |
| Pitchers | Jordan Montgomery vs. Michael Pineda |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: It’s been the season from hell for the Minnesota Twins, who entered the season with aspirations of another AL Central title and find themselves instead tied with the Tigers in the cellar of the division.
Minnesota’s season is how New York’s season probably feels to Yankees faithful, as the preseason American League favorites sit in fourth place in the increasingly competitive AL East. Despite their similar standing, the Yankees are two game above .500 and very much in the thick of things, compared to the 11-under Twins who have to be considering their options as the trade deadline nears.
On Tuesday, the two teams meet in Minneapolis and it’s a strong opportunity for Minnesota to steal a win against a team against whom it probably feels snake-bitten considering the postseason history. Michael Pineda was surprisingly lit up by the Orioles last time out, but has otherwise been solid for the Twins, who rarely let the injury-prone veteran go beyond the 90-pitch mark.
Jordan Montgomery has been competent for the Yankees, which has been welcomed in the Bronx amid a turbulent season filled with injuries. The issue for him Tuesday is that the Twins hit lefties to the tune of a 108 wRC+, which ranks ninth in the majors.
Despite the offensive success, the Twins are still just 7-13 against left-handed starters, which is why we’re staying away from the full-game moneyline. Instead, we’ll focus on their starting pitching edge with the steady and solid Pineda against Montgomery and take the Twins’ first five innings moneyline at -105, bet to -110.
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