MLB Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: 2 Best Bets for Red Sox vs. Yankees To Begin Second Half (July 15)

Steven Ryan/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge.

The All-Star break is in our rearview mirror and we’re full speed ahead on the second half of the Major League Baseball season … kind of.

While the rest of the league begins the second half on Friday, the Red Sox and Yankees get us started with a standalone clash on Thursday night on ESPN.

Kenny Ducey and Collin Whitchurch provide their best betting picks for our solo affair, with Ducey eyeing a moneyline and side and Whitchurch on the total. Here are our best bets for Thursday’s matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees.


MLB Odds & Picks

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Red Sox vs. Yankees 7:08 p.m. ET
Red Sox vs. Yankees 7:08 p.m. ET

Red Sox vs. Yankees

Pick Yankees -115
Book <!–BetMGM–>BetMGM
Pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Domingo Germán
First Pitch 7:08 p.m. ET

Kenny Ducey: The Yankees enter the second half on something of a heater, winning five of seven games and two consecutive series. Their offense is starting to round into form, too, with a wRC+ of 109 over the past two weeks and a sublime 11.6% walk rate. They’ve walked all season long, but haven’t had the home runs to drive in those runners until lately.

With the power bats heating up, I think this could be a good matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s true that the Yankees have a documented history of struggling against lefties dating back to last year, and that Rodriguez shut down this lineup just about a month ago. With that said, he still has historically had issues with walks, and he’s allowed 14 homers and a higher-than-average 7.4% barrel rate.

It’s not every day we get the chance to back an offense this talented, at home and in a good matchup. That’s what we have here in the Yankees at just -115. I think the offense is underpriced. I’d bet them up to -120.

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Red Sox vs. Yankees

Pick Under 10 (-115)
Book <!–DraftKings–>DraftKings
Pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Domingo Germán
First Pitch 7:08 p.m. ET

Collin Whitchurch: This is mostly a bet on Eduardo Rodriguez and against the Red Sox offense.

Rodriguez has been a positive regression candidate for a while now, and his results over the last month and a half have shown plenty of signs that he’s starting to come around. Despite a still-ghastly 5.52 ERA, Rodriguez has put together solid results for the most part since the calendar turned to June.

That hasn’t resulted in an ERA drop, but it probably should have. He enters the second half with an xERA nearly two runs lower (3.64) and similarly low FIP and xFIP figures. When he faced the Yankees at the end of June, he went six innings and allowed just two runs with no walks and eight strikeouts.

The Boston offense has cooled a bit and is only slightly above-average by wRC+ (104). Domingo Germán can be homer-prone at times, but has only allowed one to Boston in two meetings and 9 2/3 innings this season.

I think he holds them at bay on Thursday, and between him, Rodriguez and the Yankees’ elite bullpen, this line is about a half-run too high. You’ll see 9.5 at some shops and I would stay away there, but I would bet the under at 10 to -115.

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