Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.
Mets vs. Padres Odds
| Mets Odds | -105 |
| Padres Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Saturday morning and via BetMGM. | |
Saturday’s late game features one of the best pitching matchups we’ll see all season, as Jacob deGrom and Joe Musgrove go head-to-head.
The Padres have stolen the first two games of this series in two low-scoring battles. Given the pitching matchups, we probably are in for another low-scoring affair tonight.
However, should we expect the Padres to win again? I’m not so sure.
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Are The Mets Paper Tigers?
After a lackluster start, the Mets have finally begun to gain some momentum.
At 27-23, they’ve opened up a 3.5-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. However, I’m not really sure just how good the Mets are. They’re 15-5 at home but just 12-18 on the road, and they’re only 2-12 against teams with a .500 or better record.
But the Mets are also the only team in the division with a positive run differential (+3), and some of the star players are starting to come around. Take Francisco Lindor, who’s most recent seven-game stretch (.400 BA, 1.019 OPS) has raised his average from .185 to .217.
In fact, the whole Mets lineup has been hitting well recently. Over the past seven days, the Mets are seventh in OPS (.788) and sixth in wRC+ (119). That’s a good sign for a team that’s struggled with hitting this season.
But there are also Mets players who have been dominant all season. Take today’s starting pitcher:
Starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (RHP)
I could gush about deGrom all day. We could talk about his .71 ERA, or his .57 WHIP, or his 45% strikeout rate, or his ridiculous fastball velocity that is increasing at a near-impossible rate:
But instead of repeating basic deGrom talking points, let’s talk about deGrom vs. the Padres.
deGrom throws his fastball more than 60% of the time, and the Padres haven’t been very effective against that pitch this season. San Diego ranks 23rd in weighted fastball runs created (-7.9), and hitters have posted just a .170 average against deGrom’s fastball.
However, this Padres lineup has seen a little success against deGrom in the past. Manny Machado is 6-for-15 (.400) lifetime against deGrom while Victor Caratini, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers have combined for 12 hits and three home runs off the star.
deGrom has pitched against San Diego eight times in his career, most recently in 2019. In two starts against the Padres that season, deGrom threw 14 innings while allowing just two runs on eight hits. He struck out 16 batters in the outings.
Musgrove Has Been Untouchable For Padres
After dropping three straight games at Wrigley to the red-hot Cubs, the Padres are looking to bounce right back and take this four-game series from the Mets.
But it’s been on the back of their pitching staff rather than their lineup. The Padres bats have gone cold in recent weeks, as they’ve posted just a .673 OPS and an 88 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Luckily, Fernando Tatis Jr. has carried the ballclub, as he earned NL Player of the Month for May and has posted a 1.175 OPS and hit four home runs in his past eight games.
Again, the Padres pitching staff has been great this series and very good overall. Specifically, the bullpen, which has the third-best WHIP (1.09) over the past two weeks based on its .185 average allowed.
San Diego is 20-10 at home and have allowed the fewest home runs per game of any team in the majors. Let’s see if Joe Musgrove and Co. get the job done today.
Starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove (RHP)
Since that faithful April night where Musgrove no-hit the Rangers, he’s turned into a legit All-Star caliber pitcher. He has a 2.08 ERA and a .76 WHIP while posted a .228 wOBA against, all elite numbers. He’s also striking out more than 33% of batters faced.
Moreover, Musgrove hasn’t allowed a run in his past three appearances. He’s pitched 16 2/3 innings in his three-game stretch while allowing just two hits and one walk to 20 strikeouts. Hitters have posted a combined .179 OPS during that period, which seems impossible.
While he’s primarily thrown a fastball in his career, he’s now throwing his slider more than a third of the time. That strategy’s working out well, as the pitch’s wicked horizontal break is holding batters to just a .129 wOBA.
Mets-Padres Pick
This is a tough game to handicap. The Mets opened as moderate favorites but the line has quickly moved the opposite way. The Padres are clearly the better lineup, but recent numbers seem to disagree.
In the end, if you can get deGrom at close to even money, that’s too good of a deal to pass up. As mentioned, the Padres don’t hit fastballs well, and while the Mets can struggle with Musgrove’s arsenal, the lineup’s recent performance gives me confidence betting them. Additionally, Musgrove has to be due for a few runs soon.
I’d give the under a look as well. We’ve tracked sharp money coming in on the under, and these two bullpens should pitch as well as the starters. Moreover, umpire Hunter Wendelstedt is 233-213 to the under in his career (52.2%, +9.66 units). However, I probably wouldn’t play it unless I can find it at 6.5 runs or better.
Pick: Mets -105
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