Lille vs. Paris Saint-Germain Sunday Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 21)

Lille vs. PSG Odds

Two of the top clubs in France square off Sunday, as Lille hosts Paris Saint-Germain in a matchup for the top spot on Ligue 1 table.

PSG got things back on track Wednesday, beating Lorient at home, 2-0. The Parisians were knocked out of the top spot in the table last weekend when they were upset by Lyon at home. However, a win on the road over Lille would send Thomas Tuchel’s side back to the top spot in the French top flight.

This game will begin with Lyon atop the league table after they beat Nice on Saturday, but Lille are just one point behind and PSG are two back. A point from this game would put Lille back in first on goal difference, so regardless of the result, one of these teams will pass Lyon.

It’s been an amazing season so far for Lille, who have lost only one of their first 15 matches of the season. In fact, Lille has only lost twice at home in their last 23 matches in Ligue 1 play. The bad news is they’ve lost seven of their last eight matches against PSG. Will they be able to buck the trend on Sunday?

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Lille

Before the pandemic ended the Ligue 1 season last year, Lille were one of the best teams outside of PSG. Lille were the third highest scoring team in France and had the third best expected goal difference (xGD). So far this season, they have continued to improve as they have a +11.77 xGD, as they have been anchored by their strong defense.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Lille is the best defensive team in France, allowing a league-low 0.72 xG per match. They’ve also ratcheted up the defensive pressure the last four matches to the tune of 0.62 xG per game.

However, this will be the best attack that Lille will have seen all season.

Going forward, Lille will need to improve if they are going to dethrone PSG as Ligue 1 champions. They are averaging 1.50 xG, which is well behind PSG and Lyon. However, will their defense be enough to take down PSG?

PSG

PSG have not been their usual dominant selves in Ligue 1, as they’ve only won two of their last five matches. PSG have also lost to the other two teams in the Ligue 1 top four at the moment — Lyon and Marseille.

The Parisians’ games typically feature an abundance of scoring chances. Dating back to the beginning of last season, games featuring PSG are averaging 3.65 expected goals and 60% of their contests have gone over the total of 2.5 goals.

PSG’s attack has been running rampant all season, but it is going to take a toll over the next month, during which Neymar has been ruled out due to an ankle injury. The league champions are averaging 2.46 xG this season but will likely struggle on Sunday without Neymar against the league’s best defense.

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Projections and Pick

Neymar being out for PSG is a huge blow to the Parisians, especially going up against the league’s best backline. I think Lille will be able to hang with French champions and get at least a draw.

I’ll back Lille on the alternative spread number of plus-0.5 at minus-141 as my top play in this match.

Pick: Lille +0.5 (-141)