Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Gonsolin
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +205 |
| Dodgers Odds | -245 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Diamondbacks snapped out of a six-game losing streak over the weekend with a couple wins over the Mariners, but their heat was checked at the door when they visited the Dodgers and were promptly shellacked, 5-1.
The defending champions are still fighting for the NL West crown, and can inch a bit closer with a couple more wins this week over lowly Arizona and some help from the Giants.
With everything to play for, will the Dodgers’ dominance continue against the Diamondbacks? Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Diamondbacks Are Feisty Despite Record
The Diamondbacks damn near swept the Mariners last weekend, and would have come away with three wins if not for some late heroics from Seattle. The reason? Arizona had some favorable matchups against lefties, and threw some left-handers against a lefty-averse team.
Well, we won’t be talking about southpaws any longer in this breakdown, which is good because I think I wore the word “lefty” out. the Diamondbacks will throw Luke Weaver, who you may have forgotten about while he missed nearly four months with a rotator cuff issue. Well, he’s back, and he’s looked pretty good in two starts since coming off the injured list.
Though the starts came against the Padres and Rangers, who have both been among the worst offensive teams in baseball over the last month, Weaver has gone 11 innings while striking out seven and allowing just four runs on eight hits for a 3.27 ERA.
While his peripherals never looked good from the jump this year, Weaver has been a rather dependable starter to bet on with the exception of one bad outing against the Marlins in May. He’s rarely going to completely shut down an offense, but he does have some impressive starts to his name this year and might be a decent matchup against a slow-moving offense.
Pitching Has Carried Dodgers Of Late
The Dodgers have won four in a row and seven out of 10, but their performance over the last two weeks has hardly been convincing at the plate. They rank 20th in baseball with a 90 wRC+ over that span, with their precious walk rate taking a hit at 9.5%. That is a great way to bring down the OPS, as is a .216 batting average.
It’s been a struggle to get runners on base for LA, and that’s made the 18 homers the Dodgers have hit in the last 14 days a bit less fruitful.
Luckily, the Dodgers have one of the best pitching staffs that money can buy, with a 2.10 ERA over that two-week span and the second-best xFIP in the league at 3.68. The bullpen has been strong, and that’s going to be even worse news for Arizona with Tony Gonsolin getting the ball.
The righty has been very effective this year in his very short starts, and he’s coming off a three-inning stint against the Cardinals last week where he allowed just a run on three hits over three frames.
Gonsolin is striking out more than 26% of the batter he’s facing, and his xwOBA on contact has sunk to .317. He should set the table here very well against a bad Diamondbacks offense and hand things off to a surging bullpen.
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Diamondbacks-Dodgers Pick
It’s not the easiest thing to stomach, but I do believe in Weaver here with the Dodgers sleepwalking a bit at the plate lately. He’s been effective enough to limit this team to perhaps a handful of runs over five or six frames, and with Gonsolin and the Dodgers bullpen shutting down Arizona, it’s likely not going to take an excellent performance from the Snakes to hit the under.
I like targeting the total here and love getting plus money.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
