Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Table of Contents
- Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Definition
- Adjusted Yards Per Attempt NFL Stats
- Can Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Help Me With Betting?
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Definition
Adjusted yards per attempt, or AY/A, is a statistic that measures the average yardage of a quarterback’s passing attempts while accounting for touchdowns and interceptions.
By placing a weight on touchdowns and interceptions, AY/A is a more impactful metric than Y/A. The formula for AY/A is:
(Passing Yards + 20(Passing Touchdowns) – 45(Interceptions Thrown))/(Passing Attempts).
Depending on the weighting you place on touchdowns, the 20 can be switched for 10. The statistic was introduced by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn in The Hidden Game of Football.
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt NFL Stats
Because AY/A is a stat that measures efficiency and rewards quality play, the league’s premier quarterbacks consistently rank at the top of AY/A. Below are the leaders for AY/A in 2019 and 2020.
| AY/A Rank | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers (9.57) | Ryan Tannehill (10.18) |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson (9.50) | Matthew Stafford (9.12) |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes (8.89) | Patrick Mahomes (8.94) |
| 4 | Ryan Tannehill (8.66) | Lamar Jackson (8.92) |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins (8.49) | Drew Brees (8.83) |
Can Adjusted Yards Per Attempt Help Me With Betting?
Much like other individual metrics such as weighted opportunity rating and air yards, AY/A isn’t necessarily going to give you a big edge with team wagers, but it certainly can help with daily fantasy wagers and fantasy football. Here’s how the same quarterbacks that led AY/A over the last two years fared in fantasy scoring.
In 2020, all 5 of the league leaders in AY/A were in the top 11 of fantasy production, while the top 3 in AY/A were in the top 5.
Though the 2019 doesn’t appear to be as correlated, that’s largely due to injury issues that limited the number of games each quarterback played. If accounting for average point totals, Stafford would have been 4th, Tannehill 9th and Brees 8th.
Simply put, AY/A is a solid predictive measure of a quarterback’s success in fantasy scoring. Consider keeping it in mind when playing different forms of fantasy football throughout the year, whether it be daily styles or in conventional leagues.
