West Virginia vs. Texas Odds

West Virginia meets Texas in Austin on Saturday for a top-15 showdown.

West Virginia fell just short in double overtime last weekend at home against Oklahoma, which dropped the Mountaineers to 7-4 in the Big 12.

If you remember back to early January when these two met in Morgantown, it was one of the best endings of the season.

ANDREW JONES. CLUTCH. 🥶

No. 4 Texas defeats No. 14 West Virginia in a comeback thriller! pic.twitter.com/Bmhe6f9mPZ

— ESPN (@espn) January 9, 2021

The Longhorns have struggled ever since their win in Morgantown, going 3-4  in their last seven games in the Big 12.

They have gotten things back on track over the past two games, beating Kansas State and TCU, so it’ll be interesting to see whether or not they will be able to handle the Mountaineers again in Austin.

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When West Virginia has the ball

The Mountaineers have completely reversed their usual post-dominant offense and are now a 3-point shooting team.

Bob Huggins’ squad is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Big 12, shooting almost 42% from deep. They also are the best team in the conference at getting to the free-throw line at better than a 39% rate.

However, the problem for the Mountaineers is how terrible they’ve been inside the paint.

They are the worst 2-point shooting team in the conference at under 44%. They are, however, shooting 60% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math. So, it’s their mid-range game where they are really struggling.

Texas has been average defensively this season, allowing 1.01 points per possession.

The problem for the Longhorns coming into this game is they’ve struggled to defend the perimeter, allowing better than 33% from 3-point range.

They also allow one of the highest free-throw rates in the conference and allowed West Virginia to get to the charity stripe 19 times in their January meeting in Morgantown.

If West Virginia can dominate those two areas, it may be able to pull off an upset on the road.

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When Texas has the ball

The Longhorns have been solid on the offensive end of the floor during conference play, averaging 1.06 points per possession. The great part about this Texas offense is it has no real weaknesses on offense.

In its last meeting against West Virginia, Texas dominated inside, shooting 59% from 2-point range.

Going inside is how teams beat this West Virginia squad because the Mountaineers allow better than 50% from 2-point range and better than 60% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math.

Additionally, the Mountaineers are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the Big 12, which will be a big opportunity for Texas to keep up with the Mountaineers’ red hot 3-point shooting.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I think the Mountaineers’ three-point shooting will be able to keep them in this game. They shot only 9-of-25 from deep in the first meeting, so they should improve toward their season average in the second meeting.

I only have Texas projected as a -2.24 favorite at home, so I think there’s value in backing the Mountaineers at +3.5.

Pick: West Virginia +3.5 or better.

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