Burnley vs. Fulham Odds
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET|
Clubs coming off huge road victories will go at it on Wednesday, when Burnley hosts Fulham in a midweek Premier League clash at Turf Moor.
The Clarets might have earned their biggest win of the season when it cruised to a 3-0 shutout win over the weekend against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. That moved Burnley into 16th place on the table, pushing it eight points clear of its closest foe in the relegation zone.
On the other side, things were just as rosy for the Cottagers following their shocking 2-0 win over Everton at Goodison Park. The three points definitely helped the cause, but Fulham is still seven points behind 17th-place Crystal Palace.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what might be in store.
Manager Sean Dyche and the Clarets have had to work their way out of early-season trouble, but some grit and determination have paid off. That stellar effort against Crystal Palace might wind up being the result that keeps them out of harm’s way later in the season.
Burnley started both halves well against the Eagles, scoring twice in the first 10 minutes before Matthew Lowton sealed the deal just two minutes into the second half.
Statistically, Burnley continues to be one of the league’s worst when it comes to the advanced numbers despite its improvements. The Clarets sit on a paltry 20.1 expected goals (xG) and brutal 33.9 expected goals against, resulting in -13.8 xGDiff and -0.60 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Burnley, which ranks second last in xG, xGDiff and xGDiff/90, must maintain their improving form if they’re going to avoid a trip to the Championship for next season.
Like their counterparts, the Cottagers picked up a win handicappers that pundits might not have expected would happen since they were facing an opponent sitting seventh on the table and 16 points ahead of them.
That didn’t stop Fulham from absolutely taking it to Everton and controlling the fixture from start to finish away from home. When it was all said and done, the Cottagers left Goodison Park with three points from a match in which it held a massive 2.7-0.4 xG advantage.
When comparing numbers with Burnley, Fulham’s overall figures are better across the board, although they’re nothing to brag about. The Cottagers sit on 26.7 expected goals but carry a subpar 31.7 expected goals against, which result in a -5.0 xGDiff and -0.22 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Fulham is still up against it down in the drop zone, but Newcastle United’s slide has to give the Cottagers a sense of hope they can claw their way to safety with some solid play and a little bit of luck down the stretch.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I can’t see a whole lot of action at either end of the pitch, with both teams entering this affair on short rest following emotional wins away from home.
For me, the chances of either side going full out for all three points is low, which has led me to backing the total to stay under the number as my top pick.
There have been two or fewer goals in eight of Burnley’s last 10 home tilts and 12 of Fulham’s last 15 matches across all competitions, which has me feeling confident this will be a low-scoring affair in Lancashire.
If you’re looking for a side to play, avoid both and take a small shot on the draw at +215 odds. Burnley has had a ton of success at Turf Moor this season, losing just twice on home soil this year in league action. Those defeats were also excusable considering they came against Manchester City and Manchester United.
Throw in the fact Fulham has secured a whopping eight draws in its last 14 games, and I like my chances on this wager at a price.
Picks: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-167) | Draw +215