UFC 260 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Shane Young vs. Omar Morales (Saturday, March, 27)

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Young (left) and Omar Morales.

Shane Young vs. Omar Morales Odds

Young odds +145
Morales odds -182
Over/Under TBD
Venue UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Time Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN
Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings

UFC Featherweights Shane Young and Omar Morales will face off on the undercard of Saturday’s UFC 260 event. Both men are looking to bounce back after recent losses in 2020 — Young was stopped by Ludovit Klein in September and Morales lost by decision to Giga Chikadze in October.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Young Morales
Record 13-5-0 10-1-0
Avg. Fight Time 10:14 12:47
Height 5’8″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach (inches) 72″ 73″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 7/31/93 10/17/85
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.01 3.39
SS Accuracy 40% 34%
SS Absorbed Per Min 5.15 2.99
SS Defense 56% 65%
Take Down Avg .73 .29
TD Acc 25% 100%
TD Def 64% 100%
Submission Avg 0 0
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Young vs. Morales Pick

Morales is one of two moneyline plays (along with Stipe Miocic) that show actionable value on the card. He’s the larger man (3-inch height and 1-inch reach advantage) and owns significantly more power than Young, whose best hope is to win this fight on output (6.01 to 3.39 strikes landed per minute, +6% accuracy).

Young is very hittable (-9% striking defense) and Morales is much more likely to find a finish here — if this bout does go the distance, judges may have to weigh Young’s volume against Morales’ damage — which makes me hesitant to lay the juice on the favorite.

I was surprised that Morales, who secured his only takedown and held six minutes of control against Dong Hyun Ma, didn’t try to grapple with Giga Chikadze in his last fight. That may be a more optimal strategy against Young since the City Kickboxing team — aside from Alexander Volkanovski — has shown little development in that area.

Thinking about it logistically, that does give Morales three paths to a victory compared to one for his opponent. Considering that I make him a 70% moneyline favorite, I would lay the chalk — albeit tentatively — up to -200.

I’m also waiting for the prop market on this fight to open, and will add any additional bets in my projections and on the Action app.

The Pick: Morales ML (-182)

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