Modestas Bukauskas vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+114 / -148)|
|Venue||UFC APEX, Las Vegas|
|Time||Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet|
Modestas Bukauskas and Michal Oleksiejczuk enter their UFC 260 coming off losses to the same fighter — Jimmy Crute — both by stoppage. Oleksiejczuk suffered a submission loss in February of 2020 while Bukauskas lost by TKO in October.
Both men will be looking to get back in the win column Saturday and stay competitive in a Light Heavyweight division that is already stacked with a ton of talented names.
Below I’ll preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
|Record||11-3||14-4 (1 NC)|
|Avg. Fight Time||3:31||5:43|
|Weight (pounds)||205 lbs.||205 lbs.|
|Date of birth||2/10/94||2/22/95|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.56||4.83|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||5.70||2.91|
|Take Down Avg||0.00||1.05|
I don’t think Bukauskas has the skill edge anywhere in this matchup, but he has physical advantages in height (+3 inches), reach (+4 inches), and most importantly cardio, against an opponent who generally fades in the middle of the second round.
If he’s able to survive the first round, I would take a look at Bukauskas in the live market before Round 2. He should have more output over the final ten minutes, and could eventually pull away on the scorecards.
However, “The Baltic Gladiator’s” standup style plays directly to”Lord” Michal’s advantage. This should be a pure striking battle, and without having to worry about his takedown defense, I would expect Oleksiejczuk to pressure and let his hands go against a tall man with some major defensive flaws:
— UFC (@ufc) April 20, 2019
Bukauskas vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick
There’s value on the Oleksiejczuk side at -165 or better, and value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected 71%) at -194 or better.
But I’m not certain that Bukauskas finishes a tiring Michal — and I don’t think there’s much sense in playing Michal’s moneyline when a finish is his most likely win condition and it offers a far more significant edge.
I prefer Oleksiejczuk’s knockout prop (projected +109) or inside the distance prop (projected -115) relative to listed odds of +175 and +150. You can play those down to +133 and +105, respectively. This fight has potential for a live bet on Bukauskas after Round 1 (+200 or better).
I would also play his Round 1 prop at +300 or better. The smaller cage should really play into his chances here.
The Pick: Oleksiejczuk Wins Inside the Distance (+126) | Oleksiejczuk Wins in Round 1 (+340)